Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE
&&

.DISCUSSION...SVR TSTM WATCH 379 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF N CNTRL
AND NE AL...ALONG WITH FRANKLIN CO TN. THE SVR WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 PM...ALTHOUGH THE WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY
ONCE THE LINE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE E AND NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LINE. FORTUNATELY...THIS LINE DOES NOT
APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG AS THE EARLY MORNING SQ LINE. ALTHOUGH GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR IN PLACE COUPLED WITH INCREASING SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WATCH
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROB IS QUITE LOW. RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY AS WELL IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY XPCTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE EWD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DESPITE SOME BACK
BUILDING RECENTLY...SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE MSL TERMINAL BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OVER OR
NEAR THE HSV TERMINAL BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THIS
WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR VSBYS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME. SW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT A FRONT TO APPROACH BOTH LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 20 AND 24Z TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSRA...BETWEEN 22Z AND 24Z AT MSL AND BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AT HSV
TERMINALS. THIS WILL AGAIN LOWER VSBYS OR CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR
CRITERIA. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NW BY
03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. PUT IN MVFR VSBYS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI IS PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSOURI-ILLINOIS BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKEWISE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- WHICH DEVELOPED YESTERDAY
ALONG A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW --CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
BOTH CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL...MODELS SUGGEST A LOWER AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND
LINGERING OUTFLOW AIR FROM THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT...AND PWAT VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO RECOVER INTO THE 1.2-1.3 INCH RANGE. DESPITE THIS...POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL INDICATE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
INCREASING TO 35-45 KNOTS ALOFT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THE GREATEST FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BEYOND THIS POINT
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGHS DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...
CLEARING SKIES...AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY...WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...IN REGIME DOMINATED BY MORNING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ESTABLISHED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY AS WINDS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

A DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER PATTERN STILL APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. DURING THE PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS STRONGER MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GREAT BASIN UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...DEVELOPS A WEAK CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF...BEFORE
RETROGRADING THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY REAL EFFECT THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT DURING THE UPCOMING WARM PERIOD...BUT WILL
GENERALLY NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MEXMOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NEEDLESS TO SAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY
LOW...AND MAY ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL
FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...09
AVIATION...20
DISCUSSION...DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-271015-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
536 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM LYNCHBURG
TENNESSEE...TO HUNTSVILLE AND CULLMAN. A FEW STORMS IN THIS REGION
MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING STRIKES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

70/DD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     HAIL             2 SW HUNTSVILLE         34.71N 86.61W
05/26/2011  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT BOB WALLACE AND TRIANA IN HUNTSVILLE.

&&

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ALZ009-261715-
JACKSON-
1135 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

AT 1134 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PRINCETON...OR 15 MILES EAST OF MOORES
MILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ESTILLFORK.
  HYTOP...JERICHO.
  BASS.
  RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT...LONG ISLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8617 3498 8583 3499 8563 3476 8630
      3489 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 241DEG 30KT 3484 8623

SS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

ALZ006-008-009-261730-
JACKSON-MADISON-MARSHALL-
1140 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST JACKSON...SOUTHEAST
MADISON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1139 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PAINT ROCK...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WOODVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 8628 3460 8616 3449 8637 3465 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 241DEG 30KT 3462 8632

SS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1154 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     HAIL             2 WNW NEW HOPE          34.55N 86.45W
05/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            AL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     HAIL             2 W WOODVILLE           34.63N 86.31W
05/26/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            AL   PUBLIC

            COUNTY RD 5 AND HWY 72

&&

JS