Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

399 
WWUS84 KHUN 102347
RFWHUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

ALZ001>010-016-110100-
/O.CAN.KHUN.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-111111T0100Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
547 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH ALABAMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS A RESULT OF RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WELL BELOW 10
MPH. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$
SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S AT THIS HOUR...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S. CLEAR SKIES ABOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXITING NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED SOUTHWARD FROM
A SFC LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
GEORGIA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE WEST. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS RACING OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

FOR TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS CAA BRINGS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA YESTERDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND
MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTN RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS
/SUSTAINED 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS/. WILL MONITOR THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING/WIND
ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../UPDATED WORDING FROM 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LLWS WILL ONLY BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF ARND 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS WILL BE
LIKELY THRU THE AFTN. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011/
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S...OR BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE... SAVE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED SPOTS. SINCE WE
HAVE ALREADY HAD SUFFICIENT FREEZES TO EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING
SEASON EARLIER...A FREEZE WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...LAWN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS SHOULD BE SHUT OFF TODAY...OTHERWISE
ICING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MORNING COMMUTERS WORKING VETERANS DAY.
VETERANS DAY/FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S RUNNING BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SAT...WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS WILL MAKE FOR MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANWHILE... THE
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
THAT LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING MONDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

INTER MODEL AGREEMENT BECOMES NOT SO AGREEABLE DURING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST EJECTING THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE
EAST...WHILE THE GFS WAS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES WERE SORT OF IN BETWEEN THE ABOVE MODELS...WITH NEW
GUIDANCE HERE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IN REGARDS
TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE GFS CLEARS THIS REGION EARLY WED...BUT ITS
ENSEMBLE AND MACHINE GUIDANCE SAYS OTHERWISE. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NEXT WED.

STORM INTENSITY THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC TOO. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW A MOSTLY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE PROFILE. COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW EVENTS...THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID WITH THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS. BUT IT DAMPED THE INTENSITY DOWN AS WE CAME CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. GIVEN MODEL DISAGREEMENT...WILL DO A WAIT AND SEE WITH NEWER
GUIDANCE BEFORE JUMPING ON A SEVERE VS NON-SEVERE BANDWAGON.

FIRE WEATHER... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011/
MID AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S AND
10-20 MPH NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AKA FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SPREAD AND/OR GROWTH. WE SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING LEVELS. DESPITE THAT...THOSE
PLANNING OUTDOOR BURNS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGERS POISED BY LOW
HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...12
AVIATION...CCC/12
PREV DISCUSSION...RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
459 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-102000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
459 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...PRIMARILY ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE NEXT MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

CCC/CA