Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Huntsville, AL

138 
WWUS84 KHUN 112347
RFWHUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011

ALZ001>010-016-120100-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-111112T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
547 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN
ALABAMA ...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF COOLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THUS...WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH ALABAMA TO EXPIRE.

$$

SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1058 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO PUBLIC FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY ARE IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL...WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION
COURTESY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/RH
GRIDS...BUT THESE WILL ONLY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. FOR THESE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
PORTION OF THE AFD BELOW.

70/DD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND NORTHERN ALABAMA INDICATE THAT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING RH VALUES IN THE 25-30
PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH WARMING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE AROUND 4
HOURS OF RH IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. ALTHOUGH 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RFW CRITERIA TODAY...DURATION OF SUBCRITICAL RH VALUES
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011/

A COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. UP NORTH...A STRONG WNW-ESE NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUED FROM
THE ALEUTIANS TO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEAN TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC WAS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. IT WAS ATTRACTING TROPICAL
STORM SEAN...NOW NW OF BERMUDA...TO THE NORTH. WELL TO THE SW...A
LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTED FROM THE DATE
LINE...SOUTH OF HAWAII TO THE DESERT SW. A CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF THIS
MOISTURE HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTHWARD...ABOUT 500 MILES OR SO WEST OF
THE BAY AREA. MODEL HANDING OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND A SPEED MAX/UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AS HAS BEEN PROMISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...SAVE
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATED SPOTS LIKE MONTE SANO/GREEN MOUNTAIN...IN THE
MID 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO REMAINED
IN CONTROL OF THE GENERAL WEATHER SITUATION.

TODAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW...A RATHER NICE
VETERANS DAYS IS IN THE WORKS...ONCE THE CHILL OF THE NIGHTTIME HAS
FADED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT...RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S OUR EASTERN AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO NEAR 60 OVER NW
ALABAMA. WITH MID AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REDUCED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE REALIZED. ONE SAVING GRACE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE 5-15 MPH RANGE (WITH THE HIGHER WINDS OVER NW ALABAMA). UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE VALLEY...NOT
AS COOL THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DURING SUNDAY.
CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AS SOME OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO FORM WEST OF HERE
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY.

ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST. HAVE HELD ON TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT MON-TUE. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MORE SHEAR THAN INSTABILITY...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST AWAITS AFTER TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE SHARPLY THEREAFTER. THE
GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. CONVERSELY...THE
ECMWF BRINGS A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
TUESDAY...CONTINUING IT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
EC SOLUTION...AS IT WAS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
CUTOFF LOW. THESE LOWS...UNLESS THEY ARE ABSORBED INTO THE
WESTERLIES TEND TO MOVE SLOWER. THE SLOWER TREK WILL RESULT IN
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. A SOUTHERLY WILL FLOW BRING MORE
MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE GULF...PLUS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM THE
ECMWF SHOWS. THUS...IT IS A TOUGH CALL ON CHARACTER/STRENGTH OF
STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES
ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS. HAVE GONE DRY FOR NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE/FIRE WEATHER...70/DD
AVIATION...CCC
PREV DISCUSSION...RSB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
520 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-112000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
520 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK AND MAY STALL ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AND LINGERING INTO MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

CCC