Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
210 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT LOWER FOOTHILLS.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY, REDUCING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SIERRA NEVADA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS DRIFTED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW AT MEADOWS FIELD...BAKERSFIELD...
THIS MORNING WAS 81 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE /80 IN 1950/ BY ONE DEGREE. THE LOW AT FRESNO
WAS 76 DEGREES...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM THERE OF
77 DEGREES...SET IN 2007.

CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON PDT
/1900Z/ TODAY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM AN
OVERNIGHT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
PUSHES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST OVER
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AS IT RIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WELL-DEFINED
CLOUD BAND ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING WEST
INTO THE EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERTS. AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOUD BAND WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KERN AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERTS...IS ON TRACK.

THE 12Z MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...BUT THE UPPER=
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND
THE 500-MB 5880-METER LINE IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG A SAN FRANCISCO-
RENO LINE AT 00Z FRIDAY /1700 PDT THURSDAY/.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...
LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL /MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/...AND SET UP A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PUSH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AFTER 02Z THURSDAY...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 6 2011...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO...KERN...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE KERN AND
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS
/CAZ095-097>099/.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE KINGS RIVER BELOW PINE FLAT DAM UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE /CAC019-031-107/.

&&

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
455 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

CAZ089>094-071230-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
455 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ095>099-071230-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
455 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE TULARE AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINING A POSSIBILITY...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BSO