Wind Advisory 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN TWO BANDS MAINLY
JUST TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST BUT THESE SHOULD BE OFF
THE COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL BE CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE TX. STRONGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
ALONG THE COAST AND SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH STRONGER
CELLS DEVELOPING TOWARDS BRENHAM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH TX TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION
OVER C TX WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER SE TX THROUGH THE MORNING. CAP
SEEMS TO BE ERODING WITH THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION SO THINK
SCT/NUMEROUS TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY CONVECTION BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. POSSIBLE TO GET AN ELEVATED STORM OR TWO BUT EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE SFC BASED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE NNW WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30
KNOTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
IMPROVING FROM IFR/MVFR IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO VFR.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AROUND SUN SET WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY GETTING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER THE SW COUNTIES AND EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO HARRIS/GALVESTON
BAY AREA. COLD FRONT AT 09Z HAD JUST PASSED THROUGH TYLER/TEMPLE
LINE AND SHOULD BE INTO CLL/DKR SHORTLY. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 40S QUICKLY POST FROPA OVER NCTX. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH TO THE COAST BY 17Z-18Z. UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES EXPECT TO
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WOW...THUNDER HERE AT THE OFFICE...CAN'T REMEMBER WHEN THE LAST
TIME I HEARD THUNDER. NOT A LOT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH BUT ENOUGH
AND MAINLY ABOVE 650MB. VWP NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND SRH OF
AROUND 110 0-3KM. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WITH THE STORMS BUT
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A SMALL HAIL REPORT. UPPER LOW NEAR LBB AND WILL
SWING EAST TO NEAR ACT BY 18Z INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND CF
SHOULD AID THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED BEFORE NOON THEN FALLING TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RAPID CLEARING OF SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE BEEN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH 20Z AS
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND CI SWATH TRAVERSES THE AREA. WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST AND GUSTY AND MAY NEED TO ADD A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION BUT WITH WINDS
RELAXING AT LEAST A LITTLE BY MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY CHILLY BY RECENT STANDARDS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S INLAND...NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AROUND NOON THEN SLIPPING EAST WHICH WILL BEGIN THE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE THOUGH AT FIRST RECIRCULATED. QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS NEXT SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND TRACKS
OUT INTO OK/KS. WARMUP FOR SETX TUESDAY WITH MUCH WARMER MORNING
TEMPERATURE READINGS. PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROPA BUT AM NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS AS OF YET AND SO PLAN TO KEEP 30 POPS FOR THE FROPA.
ANOTHER DRY SPELL SETS IN AS STRONGER HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION.
PERHAPS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY.

MARINE...
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOT BEEN USEFUL DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SO LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT ANY SEA FOG.  GALVESTON HAS HAD
MAINLY LOW STRATUS AND VSBY HAS JUST STARTED TO DECREASE.  A FEW
GULF PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN REPORTING DENSE FOG TO THE EAST OF
GALVESTON AND HIGH ISLAND SO THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG.  WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR GAL BAY AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST BY NOON TODAY.  FRONT WILL CLEAR ANY FOG OUT OF THE AREA.
SHOULD ALSO SEE 20-30KT WINDS FROM THE NORTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
7-9FT IN THE 20-60NM WATERS.  SCA ALREADY ISSUED LOOKS ON TRACK AND
SEE NO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENT.  ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN MON AND
INCREASE TUE.  MAY NEED SCEC/SCA FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WITH
A DECENT FETCH LENGTH...SEAS COULD BECOME QUITE ROUGH.  GFS/ECMWF
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST WED
MORNING WITH SCA CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  39

AVIATION...
MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UP COMING 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY CONVECTION ALONG IT.  LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT COULD SEE SOME SFC BASED
CONVECTION IF THE CAP ERODES ENOUGH WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME MVFR VSBY.  SHOULD HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.  39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  35  65  42  66 /  40   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              66  39  65  44  68 /  80   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  48  61  52  64 /  90   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-061030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
420 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMALL
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.