Wind Advisory 28, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1006 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE GOING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
THE UPDATE. CURRENT OB TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE TIGHTENED GRAD-
IENT IS PRODUCING SOME PRETTY GOOD GUSTS THERE. OTHERWISE LOOK-
ING OUT TOWARD THE W/SW WHERE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT/WIDELY SCT
PCPN DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF THE
EVENING POP GRIDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011/
AVIATION... SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR TODAY. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING A COUPLE OF PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS PUSHING SOUTH AND UTS JUST DROPPED TO BKN015
AT 5 AM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD IMPACT CXO/IAH A
LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. NAM 12 IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH RAIN CHANCES BUT SUB CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO DRY FOR PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY AS 25-35 KNOTS AT 925
MB MIX TO THE SURFACE. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011/

BASED ON 06Z AND 09Z SFC ANALYSIS...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE GULF AND HAVE HAD
CLEARING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LOW OVER THE N OZARKS WITH TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING S THROUGH W LA. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THE FORECAST. ONE IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH ANOTHER OFF THE BAJA COAST
OF MEXICO. THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT SE TX WED NIGHT INTO THUR.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT WED TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS. MOST OF SE TX HAD SOME RAINFALL AND WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S...ONLY EXPECT RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT BY THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BUT RED FLAGS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. THUR WILL STILL HAVE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10 MPH AND
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR WED NIGHT. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET BECOME MORE IN
SYNC. DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK
WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND UPPER TX COAST. THIS OCCURS
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT AT 500MB. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF Q-G FORCING AND
ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING RAIN WITH THE GFS DRY. LOOKING AT NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. POSSIBLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE
DRY AIRMASS.

MODELS KEEP NW FLOW ALOFT OVER TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW
OFF THE CALI COAST SAT/SUN. SEEMS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
DONE A ROLE REVERSAL. THE ECMWF IS NOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
WITH THE TROUGH AND THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
COAST ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW A SOLID 12 HRS FASTER WITH
PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO TX THAN THE GFS AND THE GFS IS NOW 12 HRS
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SE TX. FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN
20 POPS SUN FOR SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS. FORECAST WILL ALSO KEEP 20 POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL THE MODELS CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. ESSENTIALLY
DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO NOT HAVE TO
FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST AROUND TOO MUCH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THINK THE FRONT WILL COME INTO SE TX BUT GIVEN ITS PACIFIC
NATURE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS. THINK THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT MAINLY JUST DRYING OUT THE AIRMASS
MORE THAN ANYTHING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  41  66  38  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  45  66  38  70 /  10  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  51  67  48  67 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-101000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
354 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 30
PERCENT AND MOST OF THE AREA HAD RAINFALL TO MOISTEN FUELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-101000-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
354 AM CST WED NOV 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS
AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.