Wind Advisory 22, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.AVIATION...
EXPECT AN MVFR BKN CEILING TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. BECOMING VFR
AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SSW/SSE WINDS. CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD THE TEXAS
COAST...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED
CB TO SOME TAF SITES (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS) STARTING AT 21Z.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN STARTING TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THIS EVENING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COOLING NEAR 850 MB THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
CWFA THIS EVENING. UPDATED 1ST PERIOD ZFPHGX REFLECTING DECREASING
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE ZFPHGX ON TRACK. 37

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. BIG WILDFIRES ERUPTED
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY JUST WEST OF PLANTERSVILLE
AND ALONG THE WALKER-MADISON COUNTY LINE SOUTH OF MIDWAY WHILE THE BIG
FIRE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY PERSISTS. OTHER SMALLER FIRES DOT THE
AREA. RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS THAT SHOULD ASSIST FIRE CREWS
IN GAINING SOME CONTROL OF THESE BURNS.

WILL LIKELY LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 10 PM. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING
MIGHT BE NEEDED DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED!  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND BREEZY DAY HERE IN PARADISE. EXPECT MOSTLY THE
SAME WX CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER AS GULF MOISTURE STARTS HEADING
BACK IN AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS LOOSENING ITS GRIP. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN SEABREEZE SHRA/TSTMS
ACROSS SE PARTS OF THE REGION BUT FEEL 20% POPS ALREADY IN THE
FCST WILL MORE THAN COVER THIS.

UPPER TROF IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL HEAD SEWD INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL SEND A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO N
TX. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE (CURRENTLY SEEN
NEAR THE YUCATAN) WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE AREA TUE-THURS. THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/FORCING WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WE'VE SEEN IN MONTHS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THE THE FIRST SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING INTO ERN PARTS
OF THE REGION ON TUE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I-45 BUT
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH UPSTREAM LATER IN THE DAY AS STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT & UPPER TROF WELL TO THE NORTH COULD
MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TOWARD PEAK HEATING.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (2-2.2") MOVES INTO SE
TX. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE DAY WITH
HEATING. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM TUE COULD ALSO BE IN PLAY. OTHER
THAN AT THE COAST...WITH THE LACK OF A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY/TRIGGER
WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP POPS UP ANY FURTHER THAN THEY
CURRENTLY CONSIDERING IT'S LIKELY TO BE MESOSCALE DRIVEN AND
TIMING/LOCATION IS UP IN THE AIR THIS FAR OUT. FAIRLY CONFIDENT
MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL BUT LONGEVITY AND AMOUNTS ARE
UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEAK AND STORM MOTIONS DIMINISH TO <7 KTS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE LEVELS DIMINISH. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME
SCT ACTIVITY BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS WED. SHOULD BE DRIER GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE EXERTS MORE CONTROL OF THE AREA.  47

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MON PROMPTING
ANOTHER SCA.  ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY AS
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST WINDY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS DECREASE FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK WITH A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED BY TUE.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  34

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TIL AROUND 10PM TONIGHT WHEN
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE. WINDS WILL BE
EVEN STRONGER ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY HAVE ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MADE WORSE BY THE VERY DRY FUELS
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL SMALL GRASS/BRUSH FIRES ACROSS THE
AREA AND ONE LARGE WILD FIRE IN TRINITY COUNTY.  THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE TUE THROUGH THU WHICH MAY BRING SOME RELIEF AND
MOISTEN FUELS.  UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE AT LEAST TWO MORE DAYS OF
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79 100  80  98  78 /   0  10  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  97  81  94  79 /   0  20  20  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  90  80 /   0  20  30  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

GMZ330-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-202100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH DRY VEGETATION
IN PLACE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAY TWO...MONDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LESS THAN 35 PERCENT.

.DAY THREE THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH
WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
INCHES DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE VERY WELCOME...THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT
BUSTER. SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2010...MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ARE 15 TO 25 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ335-350-355-370-375-202100-
GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
348 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET. BAY WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS DEEPEN GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.