Wind Advisory 17, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWFA DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. PROFILERS INDICATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT. WOULD EXPECT GUSTY SSE WINDS BY MID MORNING
FOR ALL TAF SITES. 37

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY
BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
SPEEDS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WRN
ZONES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TODAY...IN THE 23
TO 25C RANGE OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THIS AND THE WARM START TO THE
DAY...EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE INLAND COUNTIES WILL REACH THE UPPER
90S...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 100
DEGREES. BOTH DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH
OF MAY COULD BE CHALLENGED. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING FROM TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO/TN VALLEYS. A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE RESULTING IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...DROPPING TO 19-21C SUNDAY AND 17-18C MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN MAX TEMPS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS/WIND.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SUMMER PATTERN TAKING HOLD OVER MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE
WEST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE END OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AND BECOME VERY LIGHT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LAND BREEZE/
SEABREEZE INTERACTION DEVELOPING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME LESS
CAPPED AS WELL. MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH BY THURSDAY (PWS AROUND
1.5 INCHES) TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 10 PCT FOR NOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

35

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY:
COLLEGE STATION - 98/1958
HOUSTON/IAH     - 98/1906
HOUSTON/HOU     - 97/2010
GALVESTON/GLS   - 90/1958

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY:
COLLEGE STATION - 100 (5/31/1998 AND 5/29/1996)
HOUSTON/IAH     -  99 (5/29/1996)
HOUSTON/HOU     - 100 (5/31/1998)
GALVESTON/GLS   -  94 (5/3/1984)

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CAUTION FLAGS REMAINING UP WITH SCA BEING RAISED FOR THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL TO FREEPORT OUT TO 60 NM BY 18Z INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY.
SCA FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. SEAS INCREASING TO 6 TO 7 FEET SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF 20 TO 60 NM REGION TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
ACROSS CWFA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  76  97  76  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  78  95  78  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  79  88  79  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-291200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
402 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.