Wind Advisory 11, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

572 
WWUS74 KHGX 232050
NPWHGX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELED...

.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 25 MPH...THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT
HAS BEN CANCELED.

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-232200-
/O.CAN.KHGX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-110424T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-JACKSON-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...
FREEPORT...HEMPSTEAD...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...WEIMAR...WHARTON
350 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS CANCELLED
THE WIND ADVISORY. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE FALLEN
TO BELOW 25 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELED. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE. CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED MVFR OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SCATTER
OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN SITES WHICH ARE CLOSER
TO THE LLJ LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TOMORROW NIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENING...WITH CIGS BUILDING
IN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAINING MVFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10KTS WILL KEEP ALL SITES MVFR FOR
NOW. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS IN
PLACE ACROSS SE TX TONIGHT HELPING TO FUEL INTENSE STORMS HUNDREDS
OF MILES NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE SE TX REMAINS CAPPED. STRATUS
DECK HAS FORMED OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM MID-SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE BURNING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
FOR DAY 2. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/NW TX SUN AFTN ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN MCS PROPAGATING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE (VERY FAR WEST) AND CONTINUATION OF STRONG CAPPING OVER
THE AREA CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...SETTING UP OUR MOST PROMISING LOOKING DAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TX WHILE RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS COULD SET UP OVER
THE NRN PARTS OF THE AREA HELPING TO FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW PWS REACHING 1.4-1.6 INCHES MONDAY WITH A BREAKABLE CAP
(CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S). GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY FORECAST (CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LIS -6 TO
-8)...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SINCE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...STAYED LOW WITH POPS. THIS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
WEST TX ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRYLINE STILL NEARBY...CAPPING
LOOKS MUCH STRONGER FOR TUESDAY THAN FOR MONDAY...AND THE TROUGH
WILL NOT APPROACH SE TX UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH THE
PARAMETERS FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TUESDAY IS SLIM AT BEST. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO 10-20 PCT FOR
TUE AFTN/EVENING GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SE TX EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH
FROPA IS SLIM AT BEST AND KEPT POPS JUST 10-20 PCT. RAPID
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. NICE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
SE TX. EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITY ALONG WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL TIED OR BROKEN RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS ARE LIKELY UNTIL THE FROPA WEDNESDAY.

35

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY:
     TODAY(4/23)    SUN(4/24)   MON(4/25)
CLL    91/2000       91/2003     92/1925
IAH    91/1999       92/1894     90/2006
HOU    91/1967       90/1987     91/1932
GLS    86/1971       87/1955     87/2003

RECORD HIGH MINS THROUGH MONDAY:
     TODAY(4/23)    SUN(4/24)   MON(4/25)
CLL    74/1999       73/1964     74/1921
IAH    76/1967       74/1964     75/1967
HOU    74/1970       74/1970     74/1970
GLS    76/1967       76/1967     76/2006

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH CAUTION FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  38

&&

.FIRE...
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING A
SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR. DECENT RH RECOVERY THIS
MORNING IS THE ONLY PLUS...WITH LOWEST HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE
30 PERCENTILE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON
LINE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  73  91  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  74  89  74  87 /   0   0   0  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  82  74  82 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
422 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAY TWO...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY THREE...MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING FROM THE
DISTURBANCE TO BREAK THE CAP GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAY FOUR...TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY FIVE...WEDNESDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS...AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS SIX THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.