Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AS IT IS SUPPOSED TO BE THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND N LA. TROUGH AXIS DOES LAG A BIT AND SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION OVER N AND E TX.
CONVECTION EXTENDS BASICALLY FROM NACOGDOCHES BACK TO EAST OF
TEMPLE. STILL SOME CHANCE THIS CONVECTION COULD SHIFT S OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THINK IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. MAY
HAVE A FEW ISO THUNDERSTORMS BUT THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
SMALL. MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH CLOUD COVER. THE 12Z NAM
PUSHES THE CONVECTION EAST WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT
THE 12Z WRF- NMM SEEMS TO THINK MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH 03Z. FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN DROP POPS TO 20 FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME STABILIZED WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM C KS TO THE N TX PANHANDLE
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN OFF THE COAST
BETWEEN 12-15Z THU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND IT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD DROP TO AROUND
20 PERCENT WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTS TO 20-25. MOST OF SE TX
HAS HAD SOME RECENT RAINFALL SO WILL NOT JUMP ONTO A RFW JUST
YET. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAINLY DUE
TO THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RATHER SEASONABLE
TEMPS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WHICH AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN
ONCE AGAIN. THE 12Z ECWMF/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN ALL HAVE A UPPER LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH. ALL THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS PUT THE FRONT INTO SE TX NEXT TUE
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THE FORECAST
ALSO LEAVES 20 POPS FOR TUE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT
SKEPTICAL OF THERE BEING VERY MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION. WILL AT LEAST MENTION SHOWERS WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING. WE COULD GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY/ SUNDAY. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH
BETWEEN A BROAD YUCATAN AREA SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SWELLS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO BRING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE AREA BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY FLAGS ARE LIKELY. 42

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD END UP BEING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND BRINGS AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO A 15% TO 25% RANGE. TOMORROW...EXPECT TO
SEE NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IF AREA
GROUNDS HAVE DRIER OUT ENOUGH FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
RAINS...AND WE DO NOT GET A LOT OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...THEN WE COULD END UP
HAVING AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOME FIRES. PLAN ON
UPDATING OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ISSUING A GRAPHICAST
TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ALSO... WILL
MENTION THE THREAT IN OUR AFTERNOON'S FWF 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  84  54  85  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  87  55  86  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  86  65  82  67 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...42

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>