Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

074 
WWUS84 KHGX 172050
RFWHGX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.A DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAINTAIN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING LESSENING THE THREAT
FIRST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EXPANDING INLAND BY MID EVENING.

TXZ199-200-210>213-172300-
/O.EXT.KHGX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110417T2300Z/
AUSTIN-COLORADO-HARRIS-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
350 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LIBERTY COUNTY.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 213.

* WIND...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
  WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 PM THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE STEADILY TO MORE THAN 40
  PERCENT BY 6 PM.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>198-180200-
/O.CON.KHGX.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110418T0200Z/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WASHINGTON-
350 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
...


* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL
  SLOWLY RELAX AFTER 6 PM.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL SLOWLY
  RISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THEN MORE QUICKLY THIS
  EVENING.


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND THIS HAS
ALLOWED A LIGHT ONSHORE TO RESUME. SFC DEW PTS HAVE BEGUN TO CLIMB
AND SATELLITE DERIVE PW VALUES ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO CLIMB AND
SURGE TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN TODAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HIGH WINDS COUPLED WITH EXTREMELY DRY GROUND
FUELS AND MARGINAL HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN PRODUCED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISKS. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY BUT
WITH THE NUMBER OF FIRES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS...WOULD PREFER TO ERROR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION. SO ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-10 IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM.

OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A ZONAL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90 ON
TUESDAY...SO BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX TEMPS THIS WEEK ARE MORE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AS TEMPS ALOFT LOOK RATHER WARM. WITH A
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...AM BANKING ON A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. MOST
OF THE WEATHER MAKERS STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH BRING A FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS BRINGS A FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS A FRONT/HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ENTERING THE REGION ON OR AROUND 4/23-4/24. PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THINGS TO CHANGE BUT FOR NOW...TOSSED IN 20 POPS AND TRENDED MAX
TEMPS A TOUCH COOLER. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO CAUTION LEVELS AND MAY
GET INTO ADVISORY LEVELS LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A
CAUTION BEGINNING AT 10 AM. THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WIND FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS IN PLACE...EVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
LITTLE RELIEF TO THESE LOCATIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR COUNTIES OR PORTIONS OF COUNTIES WHERE THE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER 30 PERCENT. WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
AUSTONIO TO BRENHAM WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 PERCENT OR LOWER.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  65  86  71  90 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  67  85  72  88 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  71  79  71  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-180200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
427 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. VERY DRY GROUND FUELS COUPLED
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS WOULD
PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH IF A FIRE DID OCCUR. CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.