Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX

261 
WWUS84 KHGX 180943
RFWHGX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING STRONG
COLD FRONT. POOR RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
WEDNESDAY.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-190400-
/O.CON.KHGX.FW.W.0016.111018T1300Z-111019T0200Z/
/O.CON.KHGX.FW.A.0011.111019T1300Z-111020T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
443 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM CDT TODAY FOR DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY FOR VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...

* WIND...BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY  MORNING
  COLD FRONT AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
  MPH. NORTH WINDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT
  THIS AFTERNOON WITH POOR RECOVERY TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AS
  DRY OR EVEN DRIER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15 TO
  25 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS BANNED OR NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS
AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE PROGRESS SWD TOWARD SE TX THIS AFTN
AND NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT TIMING OF FROPA IN 00Z
TAFS ATTM. HOWEVER HAVE DROPPED THE TSRA TEMPO GROUPS AS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE MIGHT BE TOO DRY/CAPPED. OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011/
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT WILL SKIRT THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO QUICKLY
PASS EAST OF REGION BY NOON TOMORROW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...NOW
JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...IS
TIMED TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE CWA WITH RAPID PROGRESSION. FORECAST
TIMING REMAINS THE SAME...OR ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT
AROUND 10Z AND TO THE COAST NO LATER THAN 15Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE METRO AREA...
BUT A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING MAY
EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CITY AND TO POINTS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE I-45
AND I-10 CORRIDORS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE
BEST 08-12Z THERMODYNAMICS FOR POINTS NORTH AND EAST EAST OF LAKE
LIVINGSTON...OR WHERE THE BEST PVA/MID-UPPER COOL AIR LIE. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COLUMN SATURATION (1.5-1.6 INCH PWAT AIR MASS) POOLING
JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SPARK OFF SOME -SHRA
THROUGH THE SUNRISE HOUR...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED
NORTH OF A TEMPLE TO MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE. POINTS SOUTH
OF THIS LINE ARE FORECAST TO BE TOO STABLE...WITH A MID-LEVEL WARM
NOSE (PER ENHANCED SOUTHWESTELIES) AND MEAGER AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE THE THEME OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS SPEEDS QUICKLY PICK
UP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FA FROM LATE
MORNING ONWARD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY TAKE HOLD...HOLDING
WARMING ONLY INTO THE AVERAGE LOWER 70S (INLAND)...MID 70S CLOSER
TO COAST. THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH THE BULK OF THE
DRIEST AIR SPILLING DOWN OVER EASTERN TEXAS ON BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEANS THAT AFTERNOON RHS WILL GENERALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 PERCENTILE (AT THE LOWEST). REGARDLESS...ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND STRONG NORTHERLIES WILL TRUMP THIS FACT AND A RED
FLAG WARNING APPEARS ALMOST IMMINENT.

COOLER-THAN-NORMAL AND VERY DRY WEATHER TAKE US FROM MID-WEEK ON
INTO FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW BY BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY...OR
AHEAD OF ANOTHER BOUT OF NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ENERGY. RECENT LONG
TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE TAKING
A SIMILAR PATH TO TONIGHT'S ENERGY. A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
DEEPENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IT CROSSES THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THUS...BOOKMARKED THIS EVENT BY PLACING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SUNDAY. IN THE END...BY THE LOOKS OF THIS
WEEK'S MODELING...IT DOES APPEAR THAT OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
TRANSITIONING TO AUTUMN. IF THAT MEANS MORE RAIN...THEN BRING IT
ON! 31

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL HOIST AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING STARTING AT 13Z. WITH THE COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTED TO GALE FORCE BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
ONSHORE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT WHICH IS ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE HIGH AND GROUND FUELS REMAIN DRY SO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW RFW CRITERIA
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY DRY FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
RESUME. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  72  46  72  46 /  20  20   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  74  47  72  46 /  10  30   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  78  56  72  56 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
431 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL BURN OFF AROUND MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS BOTTOMING OUT AT
20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED.

THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY...BUT WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.