Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE METRO TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ACROSS ALL
BUT OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE STILL SEEING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS AND
DRIVING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER
AND REACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS LOW. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011/

AVIATION...
MOST PCPN HAS MOVED SOUTH AND IMPACTING SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHILE
KIAH ...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL ARE NORTH OF THE PCPN REGION. PCPN
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SW AND BY 03Z ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE PCPN REGION. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH THE COASTAL REGION BY AROUND 18Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
INVADE THE REGION CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE PM WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
20 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTL PARTS OF THE
CWA AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY THIS
MORNINGS STORMS NEAR THE COAST. EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES SUBSIDE. SEEING SOME
ELEVATED CORES ON RADAR SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
AND/OR HAIL. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STORM/SEABREEZE COLLISIONS.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS NAM12 & GFS DEPICT. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THE
ATMOS MAY BE WORKED OVER FROM THIS AFTN/EVNGS STORMS TO KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LESS THAN THE MODELS DEPICT. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE OFFSHORE WINDS BY MID MORNING BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE A BIT
SLOWER TO FILTER IN (COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON'T FEEL MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE UNTIL LATE FRI AFTN OR EVENING).

VERY NICE WX EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRES WILL GENERALLY BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BUT E/NE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RESUME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A GRADUAL RETURN OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE
AND WARMER TEMPS. 47

MARINE...
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. EXPECTING A FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS UP TO CAUTION CRITERIA ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.  40

FIRE...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE
BELOW 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS WORTH OF
15 TO 20 MPH WIND SPEEDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  89  58  85  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  58  85  55 /  30  20   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  88  68  83  68 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...34

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-302015-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
315 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES SUBSIDE. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND COULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE FAIRLY LOW WITH THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.