Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

387 
WWUS84 KHGX 032111
RFWHGX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY INLAND NORTHWEST ZONES AND RED FLAG
WARNING ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

.STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TXZ163-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-040515-
/O.UPG.KHGX.FW.A.0008.110904T1400Z-110906T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.W.0012.110904T1400Z-110906T0200Z/
/O.CON.KHGX.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110904T0100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
411 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 163...176...177...195...196...197...198...
199...210...211...212...213...226...227 AND 235... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 163...176...177...195...196...197...198...
199...210...211...212...213...226...227 AND 235...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
CDT MONDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 163...176...177...195... 
  196...197...198...199...210...211...212...213...226...227 AND 
  235. 

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...LOWER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

TXZ164-178-179-200-214-236>238-040515-
/O.UPG.KHGX.FW.A.0008.110904T1400Z-110906T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.W.0012.110904T1400Z-110906T0200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-
411 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 164...178...179...200...214...236...
237 AND 238...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
CDT MONDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 164...178...179...200... 
  214...236...237 AND 238. 

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED ON SUNDAY. NONE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE
LOUISIANA COAST. AT 4 AM...THE STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES
SSW OF MORGAN CITY. DIRECT IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL BUT INDIRECT IMPACTS ARE RATHER SIGNIFICANT. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS
RATHER TIGHT. WINDS AT 1000 FEET ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS SO BETWEEN THE
GRADIENT AND MIXING...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY NOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST AND A BIT LIGHTER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
WINDS WILL COMPLICATE THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER. DECIDED TO GO WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...LOW RH
VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND THE DRY GROUND
FUELS. A FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED TO THIS
DISCUSSION LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...WELL...IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND PEAK BETWEEN 06-12Z
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST SOLUTION.
IF THE AREA RECEIVES ANY RAIN AT ALL...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM LEE PULLS AWAY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND END QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EARLY FALL COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO SE TX ON MONDAY. THE DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO COOL TO VERY LOW VALUES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT MORNING LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S ON TUES/WED
MORNING. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY. A
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED TUE-FRI. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION NEXT FRIDAY.
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
AND POSSIBLY LONGER. THE 384 HOUR GFS SHOWS RIDGING OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS AND THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
SEPTEMBER. 43

&&

MARINE...
THE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE MAINLY EAST OF FREEPORT BEYOND
20 NM. LIKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
LATER TODAY. EVEN WITH THE SWELLS MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREAS FROM
THE STORM...THE TIDE LEVELS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

TO ADD TO THE MIX...A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING AND REINFORCE THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. THIS WILL POSSIBLY
KNOCK THE TIDES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 FEET BELOW THE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER LEVELS ON MONDAY. IF SOME SWELLS POSSIBLY LINGER OVER THE
GULF...THE ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS MAY ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET
BELOW MLLW.

WITH ALL THIS STATED...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
WITH CURRENT TIDE LEVELS ACTUALLY ONLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 FEET ABOVE
MLLW...WILL DROP THE MINOR FLOODING MENTION IN THE COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  75  98  68  89 /  10  20  20  20   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              98  76  96  71  89 /  20  30  30  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  79  91  75  89 /  20  30  30  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     JACKSON...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-236>238-031200-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
1131 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY.

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY AND NORTH BEGINNING SATURDAY. TIDE LEVELS WILL RUN
AROUND 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...RESULTING
IN MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 2.7 TO 3.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO POSE A RISK TO SWIMMERS ON AREA
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE IN
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ON THE
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

PERSONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-226-227-235-031200-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
1131 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST AS FUELS AND VEGETATION
REMAIN VERY DRY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
15 MPH ON SATURDAY AND RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. SPEEDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE COUPLED WITH THE DRY FUEL AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.