High Surf Advisory 36, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON OCT 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE A TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST
LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR
TRADE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM RECENT LEVELS. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY END UP FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE BY LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO DROP OFF A
BIT LATER THIS WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE WEEK WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOME
LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY
MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF AND DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BOTH THE LANAI AND BARBERS POINT BUOYS SHOW THE FORERUNNERS OF THE
NEW SOUTH SWELL HAVE ARRIVED ALONG OUR SOUTH FACING SHORES. SURF
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LIKELY PEAKING DURING
THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS EVENT. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF
SMALL NORTH AND NORTHWEST SWELLS DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE KEETCH BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX /KBDI/ USED TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE HAS RISEN TO
606 AT THE HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON YESTERDAYS READINGS AND RH VALUES WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 45% FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
STATE MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL BE RULE FOR TODAY WITH PASSING SCT CI AOA FL300. ANY SHORT
LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD TERRAIN. MOD-STG
GUSTY TRADES WILL PRODUCE MOD LLVL TURB LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AIRMET
TANGO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU
SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OLOMANA-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-
KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BURKE
DISCUSSION...BURKE
MARINE...BURKE
FIRE WEATHER...BURKE
AVIATION...DEJESUS