Special Weather Statement, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
143 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CAPES NOW RUNNING UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINE
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH LIS RUNNING
AROUND -6. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...HOWEVER LOW FREEZING AND WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD HAIL (AND WIND) REPORTS THROUGH SUNSET.

NICE BOUNDARY SHAPING UP OVER EASTERN YORK...EASTERN
CUMBERLAND...AND EASTERN ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTIES. IN THIS
AREA...COOLER MARINE AIR IS COLLIDING WITH WARMER...ALBIET DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO FOCUS IN THE AID OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

OTHERWISE...PATCHY VALLEY FOG. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY MORNING. POPS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A COUPLE STRAY THUNDERSTORMS.

PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THESE DAMP CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH COOLER/RAW TEMPS
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WRAP UP OVER THE MARITIMES. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THIS
CUTOFF LOW GETS EJECTED OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS IS
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...MUCH MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF OR GEM. THIS
TRANSLATES TO QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN MORE MOISTURE AS WELL. NOT SOLD
ON THIS SOLUTION AS IT ASSUMES THAT A CUTOFF WILL BE EJECTED FROM
THE MARITIMES RATHER EASILY ON SUNDAY. THE PAST WEEK HAS SEEN
CUTOFFS RESPOND MUCH MORE SLOWLY TO UPSTREAM FORCING THAN MODEL
PROGNOSTICATIONS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE STAYED NEAR THE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIODS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY IS
GREATEST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE BRIEF CONDITIONS
IN LIFR CATEGORIES THIS EVENING UNDER ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS.
PATCHY IFR OVERNIGHT IN VALLEY FOG...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CIGS
ONCE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS...PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN FOG.

LONG TERM...CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE BORDERLINE SCA CONDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT UNSURE IF
WE WILL REACH SCA LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS
BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. NO MARINE ISSUES ANTICIPATED
BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
927 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-171330-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
927 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MAINE
TODAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ150>154-171330-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
927 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
146 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

MEZ008-009-013-014-021-161815-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-KENNEBEC-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
146 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KENNEBEC COUNTY...SOMERSET COUNTY
AND FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 146 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF NEW VINEYARD...OR ABOUT
12 MILES NORTH OF FARMINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND STRONG...SALEM...
NEW VINEYARD...NEW PORTLAND...KINGFIELD...AVON...NORTH ANSON...
MADISON...ANSON AND STARKS THROUGH 215 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4471 6963 4452 6998 4491 7041 4506 7019

MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
151 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

MEZ012-018-019-161830-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
151 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES NORTH OF STEEP FALLS TO 3 MILES EAST OF PARSONSFIELD...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES TO 12 MILES EAST
OF OSSIPEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WEST BALDWIN...
PARSONSFIELD...CORNISH...NEWFIELD...STEEP FALLS...LIMINGTON...
LIMERICK...STANDISH...SOUTH WINDHAM AND NORTH WINDHAM THROUGH 230 PM
EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4381 7032 4354 7070 4372 7098 4391 7069

MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
216 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

MEZ008-009-013-014-161845-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN
SOMERSET-
216 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF NEW VINEYARD...OR ABOUT
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARMINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND STARKS AND ANSON
THROUGH 245 PM EDT. IN ADDITION...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
STRONG...SALEM...PHILLIPS...NEW VINEYARD...NEW PORTLAND...
KINGFIELD...AVON...NORTH ANSON...STARKS AND ANSON THROUGH 245 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4476 6962 4460 6980 4485 7043 4505 7020

KIMBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
221 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

MEZ009-014-161845-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
221 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF MOSCOW...OR ABOUT 26
MILES WEST OF GUILFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND MOSCOW...BINGHAM...
MAYFIELD AND BRIGHTON THROUGH 245 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4491 6961 4510 7004 4522 6996 4514 6965
      4511 6965 4510 6964 4502 6962 4503 6953
      4504 6951

KIMBLE