Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE WILL CREST OVER
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN HEAD NORTHEAST BEFORE CROSSING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1031 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED VICINITY OF MASSENA AT 14Z WILL SLIDE
EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z KGYX RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...OR A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD ZONES BASED
ON MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR. THERE WERE A FEW
STREAMERS NOTED OFF THE COAST SOUTHEAST OF PORTLAND /KPWM/ AND I
INCLUDED MORNING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
CASCO BAY IN THE UPDATE. OF BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WINTER SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE TO INCLUDE
STRAFFORD AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA INTO THE GRIDDED FCST.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. ZONE FCSTS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TDA BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND
LGT NW WINDS. HOWEVER...THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
IN THE N/MT ZONES. A CD DAY ON TAP WITH H8 TEMPS -10 C OR COLDER
AND STARTING OUT VERY CD THIS MORNING. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH MOVES OUT TO SEA TNGT AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE U.S.
SE COAST. THE NGT BEGINS WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AND DEEP
SNOWPACK. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE
LOW STARTS TO MOVE TO THE NE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA
FROM SW TO NE LATER TNGT. THIS WILL CAP THE COOLING...KEEPING
TEMPS FROM DROPPING AFTER GETTING VERY CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY USED THE GFS40
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL PICK UP AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AS IT IS ORIGINATING FROM A VERY LOW LATITUDE. 00Z MODEL
SUITE HAS THIS LOW MOVING NNE...BEFORE CROSSING THE THROUGH GULF
OF MAINE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME TRACK DIFFERENCES...AND THEREFORE DIFFERENCES IN
LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. THE NAM SOLUTION IS THE
COOLEST...SHOWING AMPLE COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUING OVER ME/NH.
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH...WITH THE UK/EUROPEAN AND GGEM
MODELS ALSO DEPICTING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF THE COOLER NAM WITH THE WARMER GFS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
EXPECT THE TIMING...AS USUALLY IS WITH THESE CASES...TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM SOLUTION.

EXPECT SNOW TO ENTER NH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST DURING THE MORNING. WITH HEAVY QPF SUGGESTED BY THE
MODELS AND HPC...AND MARGINAL TEMPS FOR SNOW/MIX...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL AREAS...BUT THE COASTLINE AND
ROCKINGHAM/STRAFFORD COUNTIES. IN THE WATCH AREA...WE EXPECT 6
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WITH POSSIBLY A COATING OF ICE AS WELL.

PTYPE...PTYPE IS A CHALLENGE AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL TENDENCIES DURING THE EVENT. SNOW SHOULD FALL IN ALL
SECTIONS TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW THEN RIDES UP THE
COAST...REACHING A POINT NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND NEW
YORK TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...SUFFICIENT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW MAY ALLOW WARM AIR ALONG AND NEAR A COASTAL FRONT TO CHANGE
THE PCPN TO RAIN. JUST INLAND...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

QPF...BEST QPF WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. PREFER
HPC QPF VALUES...WITH SLIGHTLY TEMPERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND COOS
COUNTY NH.

WINDS...FINALLY A SYSTEM WITHOUT OVERLY STRONG WINDS. DO EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HOWEVER (SEE MARINE SECTION).

AFTER THIS STORM...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW TO THE
REGION AS AN ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE COASTLINE ON FRIDAY...AND
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND TDA BUT STILL
VFR. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TNGT...COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING
IN AS INDICATED BY MODEL RH FCSTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIG OR
POSSIBLY IFR CIG AFTER 06Z TNGT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR AND IFR GRADUALLY ON
TUESDAY...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT A FEW AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER
MAINE AND SE NH AS A LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA INTO GRIDDED FCST. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FCST WILL
INCREASE SEAS A BIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BASED ON LATEST BUOY
REPORTS...OTRW NO REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

NW WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING...PARTLY DUE TO THE CD AIR ADVECTING OVER THE WARMER
WATER. THE 25 KT GUSTS ARE NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF AN SCA. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TDA. SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA DUE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO AN ONSHORE FLOW TNGT
AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT TO SEA. STILL WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE NGT.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE WITH A COASTAL LOW APPROACHING THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A GALE WATCH. GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

ES

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>