Flood Watch 3, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND DOWN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY THEN INTO THE
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY THEN RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
984 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT 06Z. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. SATELLITE AS WELL AS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED SEVERAL
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE
FIRST AREA WAS EXITING THE MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE COAST WITH THE NEXT
AREA APPROACHING FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND BE OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING OVER MUCH OF COASTAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH
BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING OUT AND SEEING ANY SUNSHINE CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
REACH CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS TOWARDS EVENING.
BASED ON MODIFIED NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS IN RAOB EXPECT ANY STRONG
STORMS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BLEND OF
MET/MAV TEMPERATURES WERE USED TO INITIALIZE MAX TEMPERATURE FIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK EAST AND
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BEFORE DAWN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV TEMPERATURE WERE USED TO INITIALIZE LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN ADJUSTED UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS SE OUT OF CANADA ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRY
WX. THE HIGH QUICKLY RETREATS INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NGT WITH
LOW PRES TRACKING NE UP THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PRCP INTO THE FCST AREA. THE GFS40 TRIES TO BRING PRPC IN A BIT
TOO FAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NGT. USED HPC QPF WHICH HOLDS
OFF ON PRCP TIL WEDNESDAY AND USED NAM80 POP RATHER THAN GFS40 POP
WHICH BETTER FITS THE SLOWER TIMING OF PRPC. COULD BE SOME WET
SNOW WITH THE PRCP OVER THE SUMMITS/HIGHEST TERRAIN. FAIR WX
RETURNS THURSDAY EXCEPT A CD FNT MOVES THRU THAT MAY TRIGGER ISOLD
SHRA IN THE N/MT ZONES. HIGH PRES BUILDS SE FROM CANADA BRINGING
FAIR WX THURSDAY NGT. THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY AS
LOW PRES INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
BRINGS IN PRCP FROM THE S ON FRIDAY AND SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY. COULD BE WET SN MIXED IN WITH
THE RN OVER N/MT AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUMMITS. SYSTEM MOVES
BY SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHRA/SHSN PSBL. GENERALLY USED GFS40, NAM
POP, HPC QPF AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TUESDAY THRU SUNDAY THEN
USED GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. USED
A VARIATION OF GMOS FOR MIN TEMPS WHICH ADJUSTS FOR THE COLD BIAS
OF GMOS. ALSO...GMOS POP AND QPF NOT AVAILABLE IN GFE SO USED
GFS40 AND ADJUSTED FROM THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z TUE/...MAINLY MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS OF IFR VCNTY OF /KPWM/ AND
/KAUG/ THROUGH EVENING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 11Z FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...PRCP ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRCP DEVELOPING
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BRING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KT THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN FOG, SHOWERS, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS DROP OFF TUESDAY BUT
SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA...AT LEAST FOR THE OPEN WATERS. AT
THIS TIME WON'T EXTEND THE SCA AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL ONLY BE
NEEDED FOR SEAS AND THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR SITUATION TO BETTER
DELINEATE WHICH, IF ANY, HEADLINES WILL BEST SUPPORT EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS COME BACK UP FOR
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM. CONDITIONS EASE UP THURSDAY THEN PICK UP
AGAIN WITH THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE RIVERS IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF MAINE...TO REACH BANKFULL AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY. RIVERS ARE ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE MILD
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT FROM MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY AND SNOW MELT WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER RISES IN AREA RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FROM 22Z TODAY THROUGH 22Z TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

ES/SJC

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