Wind Advisory 2, NWS Guam

284 
WWMY70 PGUM 270629
NPWMY 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
429 PM CHST SUN FEB 27 2011

.OVERVIEW...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

GUZ001>004-270800-
/X.CON.PGUM.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110227T0800Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
429 PM CHST SUN FEB 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING. 

EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN EXPOSED
AREAS AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH AFTER SUNSET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 30 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN KNOCK OVER TARPS...CANOPIES OR LIGHT
OUTDOOR FURNITURE. SUCH ITEMS SHOULD BE SECURELY FASTENED OR
BROUGHT INDOORS.

&&

$$

CHAN

500 
WWMY70 PGUM 270811
NPWMY 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
611 PM CHST SUN FEB 27 2011

...THE WIND ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

GUZ001>004-270915-
/X.EXP.PGUM.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110227T0800Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
611 PM CHST SUN FEB 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS GUAM INDICATE WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

$$

CHAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
621 PM CHST SAT FEB 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED SHEAR LINE STRETCHES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEAR
YAP AT 8N137E ACROSS SOUTH OF GUAM AT 8N145E TO BEYOND 10N160E.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE DOMINATING THE MARIANAS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH SURF AND ROUGH SEAS CREATED BY LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO
TOWARD MIDWEEK. THEY ARE TRACKING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
PALAU GRADUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SHEAR LINE NORTH OF 10N TO NEAR
GUAM ON TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS.
THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SPREAD OVER THE MARIANAS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR
NOW...HAD INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND POP BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
DANGEROUS SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE GOING TO KEEP SMALL VESSELS AT PORT INTO TUESDAY. READINGS
FROM IPAN BUOY HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 10 AND 11 FEET SINCE EARLIER
TODAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...AND A
SHEAR LINE BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND KWAJALEIN IS STRETCHED TOWARD
THE CHUUK AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WHOLE PATTERN WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO CHANGE. MAINLY FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE IN TRYING TO
FORECAST WINDS AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR KOSRAE...ALLOWING FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARRIVING NORTH SWELL IS 1 TO 2 FEET BIGGER THAN
WHAT THE WW3 MODEL HAS SUGGESTED. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE
WW3 MODEL GRID POINT BEING SOUTH OF KOSRAE. HSA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W IS JUST SOUTH
OF KOROR NEAR 4N134.5E...WHILE A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
ACROSS CHUUK TO NEAR YAP. UNSTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT KOROR
AND YAP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. THE
SHEAR LINE ACROSS CHUUK SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND MORE
STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH SURF WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH NORTH AND EAST FACING
SHORES AT KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK. LARGE LONG-PERIOD N SWELL HAS
BEEN SLOWLY VEERING NE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR
     GUZ001>004.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST MONDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

CHAN/SIMPSON