Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM TH TN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT NOW
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE GA PIEDMONT WILL MOVE
EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA...TAKING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH IT.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE SUBSTANTIAL HELICITY
WILL BE LOCATED...BUT CAPE IS QUITE LIMITED. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAPID DRYING WILL
OCCUR FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...STARTING IN NE GA...SPREADING
ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NC AND GA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETREAT TO THE TN BORDER THIS EVENING...AND BE
GONE BEFORE DAWN. THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO BETWEEN ONE THREE INCHES...MAINLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER. GUSTY WINDS WILL REACH LAKE WINDS
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
ON SOME RIDGE TOPS. ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE IS EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...AS WILL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR MID WINTER NORMALS.

THURSDAY STARTS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW WINDS. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR MID WINTER NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THU NIGHT WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL OVER THE CENTRAL US
THRU FRI. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE S APPALACHIANS AND PUSH A SFC
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA EARLY SAT...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL NOT
INDICATED. THE NAM REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NW FLOW MOISTURE IN
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SAT MRNG....BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE DRYER GFS AND ECMWF SINCE THE SOURCE REGION IS RELATIVELY
DRY. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG FRI...THEN BELOW AVG BEHIND THE
FRONT SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...THE BALANCE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH A FLAT AND WEAK UPPER FLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND THEN RIDGING BACK OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THE
PATTERN STARTS TO BUCKLE ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING
OVER THE MS RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN REACHING THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN IS MINIMAL AND FORCING IS ALMOST NON-
EXISTANT...SO THINK THIS IS AS MUCH A CREEP TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS IT
IS SOME KIND OF METEOROLOGICAL TREND. WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER WE WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SO
AS TO AVOID ANY PRECIP TYPE UNPLEASANTNESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THAT WOULD BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY OF HAPPENING ANYWAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR RESTRICTIONS TO END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND THEN WNW THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...VFR RETURNS...STARTING IN SC...MOVING TO
KHKY. KAVL MAY BE LAST TO RISE AS MOIST UPVALLEY FLOW KEEPS
RESTRICTIONS IN LONGER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO THE NC BORER WITH TN. GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER TO WSW AND THEN
WNW...BUT WILL REMAIN CHANNELED FROM THE NW AT KAVL. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT THURSDAY MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-082000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
255 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-082000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
255 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-081200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...
COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
213 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...PATCHY BLACK ICE EXPECTED ON ROADS AND BRIDGES...

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW TO FREEZING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. AREA ROADS WILL
REMAIN DAMP FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION...AND BLACK ICE MAY FORM IN
SOME AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS MELTING
OCCURS.

07

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