Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
LABOR DAY AND STALL OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST...AND
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE WITHIN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AXIS AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHERN NC MTNS INTO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE VIRGINIAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN/CTRL
NC MTNS. THERES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE IN VIRGINIA...AND STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THIS ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE REACHING OUR NW
PIEDMONT/NRN FOOTHILLS ZONES...BUT WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO
A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE NRN FOOTHILLS. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD...SHEAR IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE THE KIND OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION THAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED
MICROBURST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND THAT COULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND MTNS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPS WERE KEPT MILD OWING TO SOME
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPSLOPE WIND.

FOR TOMORROW...A MAJOR TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE
DIGGING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
TENN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...IT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO TAP
INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. LEE. THE GFS BRINGS AN
OUTER RAIN BAND OF LEE INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA BY THE END OF THE
DAY...WHILE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ENCROACHING ON THE NC MTNS
BY THIS TIME. WE HAVE FEATURED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR MON-TUE.
THE UPPER TROF DROPS SE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND TOWARD
THE S APPALACHIANS MON-TUE...WHILE TS LEE MOVES NE TOWARD THE AREA
ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES IN MON AND STALLS OVER THE AREA TUE.
SO NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND INCRSNG LL
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCRSNG UPSLOPE FLOW
AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES N INTO THE CWA. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ONE
CONCERN MON-TUE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVS...COMBINED WITH WET SOIL...WILL LIKELY BRING A NUMBER OF TREES
DOWN AS WELL. WITH BULK SHEAR REACHING 40-50KT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
TORNADO THREAT. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVG AND HIGHS BELOW AVG BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z WED
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING THE SFC FRONT STALLED OVER THE CWA...
WITH THE GFS SLIGHT FARTHER E. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NE US
TRACKS E BOTH MODELS NOW LEAVE THE LOW ASSOC WITH THE REMNANTS OF
LEE SPINNING BETWEEN THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE S APPALACHIANS INTO
NEXT SAT. USED A BLEND FOR THIS FCST TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY
WHICH LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE HPC FCST. MDT TO HVY RAIN IS
STILL THE MAIN CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. WE HAVE SOLID CHC
POPS WED-WED NIGHT...TAPERING TO A CHC THU-THU NIGHT...WITH A CHC
MAINLY MTNS FRI...AND A SLIGHT CHC NEXT SAT. TEMSP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AVG THRU THE PD WHILE HOLDING ON TO A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT/KGSP/KAND/KGMU...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NC MTNS AND FHILLS. THEREFORE...A CB WILL
NOT BE CARRIED ATTM. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR VISBY OR HAZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY AT KCLT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS (MOST LIKELY MVFR) DEVELOPING
AROUND SUNRISE IN THE MOIST SE FLOW. DONT HAVE SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE
TO FORECAST A CIG...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SCT CLOUDS IN THE 020-030
LAYER.

AT KAVL/KHKY...CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE VIRGINIAS AND NC. KAVL WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE A TS NEARBY...SO A CB MENTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
THAT TERMINAL. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD KHKY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN...A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
LIFR VISBY/CIGS AT KAVL. ONCE AGAIN...THIS IS LIKELY MUCH TOO
PESSIMISTIC. THEREFORE...WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR VISBY ATTM.
KHKY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY...AND
ATTENDANT FLT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THERE MAY
ALSO BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DURING THIS TIME. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS RECORDED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES
OR HIGHER 85 TIMES THIS YEAR AS OF SEPTEMBER 2. THIS BREAKS THE
RECORD FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HAS
REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A YEAR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

NCZ049-050-031900-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
221 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YANCEY AND NORTHWESTERN
MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF POPLAR...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF
ERWIN...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3612 8229 3600 8234 3602 8245 3603 8245
      3606 8243 3610 8239 3612 8235

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

NCZ062-031945-
MACON-
317 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF HIGHLANDS...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHLANDS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3518 8334 3516 8321 3512 8318 3511 8318
      3509 8315 3506 8317 3505 8314 3501 8335

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

NCZ048-032015-
MADISON-
325 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARS HILL...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY
AND DRIFT WEST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3586 8249 3579 8263 3583 8292 3588 8292
      3588 8291 3594 8292 3596 8287 3593 8281
      3597 8279 3599 8279 3601 8277 3603 8270