Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROBUST POP TO BE CARRY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SE OF CONVECTIVE
LINE ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTH OF ENCROACHING NORTHERN CWFA
OUTFLOW...WITH A SHOTGUN LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

AS UPPER TROF DIGS OFF E COAST AND RIDGE AXIS RETREATS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS...EXPECT H5 DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU THIS EVE. WITH
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...INCREASED
MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS EVE. THERE IS A CHC OF
ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WITHOUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN W/TSTMS...ESP IN AREAS THAT
PICKED UP 1-2IN OF RAIN YDA. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVE
AND SHOULD DIE OUT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS WILL BE
PSBL IN THE S CWA. MRNG LOWS WILL COOL TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
AVG. SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL S OF CWA MON WHILE NW DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES SO WE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS FAR S CWA
THRU EARLY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL A COUPLE DEG ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD SHORT TERM FORECAST
IS IN THE OFFING. THE RETURN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL ENGULF THE AREA TUE AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT WED. THE OP MODELS
DISAGREE WITH THE DEGREE OF DOWNWARD FORCING AND MLVL MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE 12Z GFS ADDING MORE ACU THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX TO
BE EXPECTED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
SUBSIDENCE...THE SECOND REINFORCING THE FIRST ON WED. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND A NEBULOUS DRY SFC FLOW...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND INTO
THE U90S NON/MTNS AND L90S MTN VALLEYS TUE...AND A COUPLE DEGREES
HOTTER ON WED. A GOOD MIXING OF DRY AIR TO THE SFC WILL ALLEVIATE ANY
HEAT INDEX CONCERNS BOTH DAYS...BUT AMBIENT TEMPS WILL CREATE THE
USUAL INCREASED HEAT ISSUES...SUCH AS ENCLOSED SPACES AND PERSONAL
HYDRATION. A S/W ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWFA
LATE WED AND IT/S MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ENTRAINED WITH THE
PREVAILING DRY AIR...HOWEVER ISOLATED -SHRA/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NRN NC MTNS WED EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE....RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
N/NW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...NONE ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON
CONVECTIVE PRECIP THU AFTERNOON. THIS ISNT TOO SURPRISING...
CONSIDERING THAT W AND NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
PROBABLY DICTATES THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. NEVERTHELESS...ITS RARE TO SEE A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE OVER
THE AREA THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITHOUT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION....SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS
WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
THICKNESS VALUES MAY YIELD MAXES A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWER AND/OR TSTM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS UNTIL OUTFLOW ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH PASSES. EVEN IF SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS THIS EVENING...NOT CONFIDENT THAT LATE NIGHT
VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING NE BLYR FLOW. THE 18 UTC NAM PLACES KCLT ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGHER BLYR MOISTURE EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL NC
LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM. ADVECTION OF LOWER SFC DWPTS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY
DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACRS THE PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...GREATEST TSTM CHANCES THIS EVENING WILL BE SEEN ACRS THE
NC FTHLS/PIEDMONT BEFORE DIURNAL LESSENING. OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT VSBYS
WORSE THAN THE GOING FCST IFR LIMITED TO KAVL. WITH DRIER AIR
ON TAP FOR MONDAY...THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM...MAINLY ACRS THE SW FA.

OUTLOOK...SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK...WITH AFTN DEEP CONVECTIVE
POSSIBILITIES RETURNING AND MRNG FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH/RB
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CSH/RB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

SCZ009-010045-
YORK-
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH 845
PM EDT...

AT 759 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG STORMS NEAR TEGA CAY...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF ROCK HILL...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TEGA CAY...
  ROCK HILL...FORT MILL AND CATAWBA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3483 8087 3482 8090 3482 8120 3513 8118
      3511 8103 3509 8106 3506 8106 3505 8104
      3509 8095 3509 8091 3506 8089

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE CASAR              35.49N 81.59W
07/31/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON CASAR-LAWNDALE ROAD.

&&

BSH

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