Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
217 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATOP THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH A
PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST IN THE WEAK DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS FORMED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION JUST NORTHEAST OF CHARLOTTE. THIS SEEMS TO BE
RELATED TO WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE TROUGH.
THUS... EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME AREA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BECAUSE THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. CAPES AND LI ACROSS ENTIRE AREA CAN SUPPORT CONVECTION
BUT THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURE TO FOCUS ATTENTION ON
A PARTICULAR AREA. HIGHER TERRAIN... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... AND THE
LEE TROUGH WILL BE AREAS TO MONITOR.

OVERNIGHT... CONVECTION WILL DECREASE... BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SMALL
AMOUNTS OF CAPE LINGERING. CAN'T RULE OUT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AIR MASS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. SPC SREF
THUNDERSTORMS GUIDANCE IS ALSO CARRYING SMALL CHANCES WELL INTO THE
NIGHT.  DURING MONDAY... NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  WILL INCREASE POPS ACCORDING DURING THE DAY WITH
LIKELY POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. RECENT HISTORY OF METMOS BEING BEST MAX
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED. HAVE BLENDED THAT WITH THE
EXISTING FORECAST FOR MONDAY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...SINCE THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME OP MODEL
DISCREPANCY WITH REGARDS TO THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF
ANY DEEP LAYER DRYING...GOING TO HAVE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY CWFAWIDE...COINCIDENT WITH THE LLVL FRONTAL ZONE
MOVEMENT.

THE 09Z SREF ACTUALLY SUPPORTS THE NAM SOLUTION IN PLUNGING BELOW
NORMAL PWAT VALUES ACRS WESTERN NC THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
THIS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY...AS PER
THE SREF PROBABILITIES...GOING TO HAVE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POP
EVEN ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWFA...AND A SHOTGUN POP
ELSEWHERE. DESPITE 2-4 DEG F SPREAD IN THE LATEST MOS MAX TEMPS...A
BLEND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NOW RESULTING IN A FCST OF 1-2 DEG F
ABOVE CLIMO.

AFOREMENTIONED LLVL FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE STALLED IN OR NEAR
THE SOUTHERN CWFA THRU WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS SOME OP/ENSEMBLE MODEL
SUPPORT OF A WEAK SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW DEVELOPING. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WESTERN NC WILL BE EXPERIENCING BELOW CLIMO PWAT VALUES AND
WITH THE 09 UTC SREF PROBABILITIES OF CAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG
DIPPING BELOW 50 PERCENT...FEEL THAT WE CAN MAINTAIN POP BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AREA AND JUST A TOKEN ISOLATED CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE UPWARD TICK IN PROGGED 100-85H THICKNESS
VALUES...HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG F ABOVE TUESDAY/S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALL AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER WILL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON THU...AND REMAIN THROUGH SAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...BUT NOTHING IN THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. EACH DAY SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
BETWEEN 95 AND 100 OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND FROM 85
TO 90 ACROSS THE NC MTNS. WELL BELOW CLIMO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED...WITH MOST TSTM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AS WELL AS
ALONG ANY WEAK LEE TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.

THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN ERN CONUS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON SUN AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. IF THIS COMES TO PASS...TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
HOWEVER...IT/S GENERALLY NOT A GOOD IDEA TO PLACE MUCH STOCK IN A
DAY 7 MODEL FROPA IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU WITH BASES BETWEEN 4K AND
6K FT WILL PERSIST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BUT NOT SURE IF THUNDER WILL
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. AFTER 00Z SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 4K TO 6K
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CHANCE VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 5 MILES IN HAZE NEAR SUNRISE... BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF
AT THIS TIME. IF RAIN OCCURS AT THE TERMINAL... CHANCE OF EARLY
MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL INCREASE. SURFACE WIND SOUTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.

ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND TCU WITH BASES BETWEEN 4K
AND 6K FT WILL PERSIST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS UNTIL DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS
MOST NUMEROUS VICINITY KAVL...AND KHKY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL NORTH WIND AT 10 KT AT
KAVL. VISIBILITY RESTRICTED IN FOG DURING EARLY MORNING IN AREAS
WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
VICINITY KAVL... KGSP... AND KHKY BY 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MORNING FOG AND HAZE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
552 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ033-501-503>505-241915-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-
229 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...SOUTHERN AVERY AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASHFORD...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SPRUCE PINE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ASHFORD...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3595 8167 3591 8169 3589 8173 3587 8171
      3572 8177 3584 8207 3588 8203 3587 8200
      3589 8198 3591 8198 3594 8203 3602 8200

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ035-036-241945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
259 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND WESTERN IREDELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELLENDALE...OR 4 MILES WEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  STONY POINT...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3603 8091 3579 8092 3581 8114 3583 8115
      3582 8121 3583 8129 3601 8129

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE LOVE VALLEY       35.96N 80.97W
07/24/2011                   IREDELL            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ON CATTLEMANS RD. A TREE ALSO
            DOWN ON MOUNTAIN VIEW RD IN THE SAME AREA.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW STATESVILLE       35.85N 80.90W
07/24/2011                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN ALONG SOUTH CHIPLEY FORD RD AT THE
            SOUTH RIVER BAPTIST CHURCH.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N STATESVILLE         35.86N 80.87W
07/24/2011                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING INGRAM RD NEAR WHITES FARM RD.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

NCZ071-082-242300-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-
621 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF MATTHEWS...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FAIRVIEW...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.
MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3497 8042 3503 8079 3525 8076 3526 8063
      3520 8054 3518 8051 3516 8045 3515 8039

JPT