Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA MAY DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. A
HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE WEEK...
THEN BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT NOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL...LEAVING A
BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT. THESE TWO AREAS
ARE WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CARRIED THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY...WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT AS HEATING ABATES. LATE AFTERNOON
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE PER RADAR TRENDS.

WITH DRYING MID LEVELS TODAY...THE AREA NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS...HOWEVER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE
SOUTH. IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE CELLS MAY
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT IN DEEPER MOISTURE...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT WHERE CELLS MAY ANCHOR ON TERRAIN IN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CASE FOR DOWNBURSTS DECREASES SUNDAY AS
MID LEVELS MOISTEN FORM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT THE CASE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH AS WELL.

WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL INCREASE WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION MON THEN HOLDS NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE AREA TUE. AT THE
SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP LIMIT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE OVER THE
MTNS...SO THOSE AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHC TO OVERCOME THE VERY WARM
MID LEVEL AIR. HAVE LIMITED ANY POP TO THE MTNS AND KEPT IT IN THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE WITH A DIURNAL TREND. PRECIP CHC INCREASES TUE AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE CWFA WIDE. THAT SAID...MDLS CANNOT QUITE ON JUST HOW MUCH
BETTER THE PRECIP CHC WILL BE. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A MDL
BLEND FOR POP WHICH MEANS SCT POP MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR WITH
ISOLATED POP ELSEWHERE.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MON AND TUE. DEW POINTS REMAIN MUTED MONDAY BUT RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
TUE WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING. NAM/SREF VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE TRIMMED THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FOR
TUE...BUT STILL HAVE TEMPS APPROACHING 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID 90S FOR MON. GIVEN THE DEW POINTS HEAT INDEX REACHES 105
FOR THE LAKELANDS AND ELBERT COUNTY MONDAY AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR FOR TUE. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT NOW
KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD EVEN THO THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE STILL RETROGRADES. THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA SHUNTING THE BEST SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...AT THE SFC LITTLE
RIDGING IS PRESENT AS A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WED SINKS INTO
THE AREA THU AND SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRI. THE FRONT WASHES
OUT BY SAT...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS A MOIST ELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWFA WHEREAS THE GFS ALLOWS SOME DRYING TO WORK INTO THE EAST WITH
THE MTNS REMAINING MOIST. WITH ALL THIS EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SCT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WED THRU FRI. FOCUS OF CONVECTION MAY SHIFT
TO THE MTNS SAT...ESP IF DRIER AIR WORKS IN...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHC POP ALL AREAS FOR NOW. WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WED
HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS COOL TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THU THRU SAT WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS ABOVE NORMAL THE FIRST TWO MORNINGS FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE LAST TWO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FIELD...BUT CB MAY BE VISIBLE TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN ENE AND ESE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS BRIEF MVFR FOG AT DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY...BUT
CIG REMAINS VFR. CONVECTION SUNDAY WAITS UNTIL AFTER TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT SC SITES...
PARTICULARLY NEAREST THE FRONT AT KAND...BUT CELLS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL BE VISIBLE FROM KAVL AND KHKY AS WELL. WINDS WILL
EXHIBIT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH SUNDAY...VARYING FROM ENE
TO ESE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL BE CHANNELED FROM THE SE. A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXCEPT IFR AT KAVL. CONVECTION SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORNING FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FELL THE
DAY BEFORE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/AVIATION.PHP#TABLE

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-100745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BOILING SPRINGS NC  35.25N 81.65W
07/08/2011                   CLEVELAND          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE ROOF OF A MASONIC LODGE WAS BLOWN OFF AND A FEW OTHER
            TREES BLOWN DOWN WITH AT LEAST TWO OF THOSE TREES IN THE
            ROADWAY. BASED ON CALLS AROUND SHELBY AND WACO...SEEMS
            THE WIND WAS MUCH LESS IN THAT PART OF THE COUNTY.

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE UNION              34.73N 81.61W
07/08/2011                   UNION              SC   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE IN THE ROADWAY ON LAKESIDE DRIVE.

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSE UNION             34.63N 81.58W
07/08/2011                   UNION              SC   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE IN THE ROADWAY ON BOB ADAMS ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

SCZ014-092000-
CHESTER-
308 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORNWELL...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF CHESTER...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACKSTOCK...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3455 8106 3455 8117 3456 8117 3456 8129
      3457 8131 3461 8133 3471 8115 3455 8099
      3454 8100 3454 8105

HG