Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2200 UTC UPDATE...WINDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY. SKY COVER...GUSTS AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED AS WELL.

AT 225 PM...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE RIDGES WITH SHALLOW CU FIELD EAST OF THE
MTNS. IN ADDITION...AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER MIDDLE
KY/TN...TREKKING SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THE OUTFLOW WILL
REACH THE CWA. TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO POPULATE THE MTN RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE VALLEYS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT FROM LOCALLY
PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
BECOME COMMON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CIN BECOMES ZERO. AS THE
CASE LATE THIS WEEK...CONVECTION MAY SURVIVE A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
L60S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE U60S EAST.

AT 18Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT CAPES RANGED BETWEEN 1500
TO 2500 J/KG. DCAPE VALUES MAY RANGE AROUND 1000 J/KG. FZL SHOULD
RANGE AROUND 13.5 KFT...PLACING THE 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHT AROUND 24.5
KFT. PW SHOULD RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH K-INDEX VALUES IN
THE MID 30S. STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SLOW...INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SEVERAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE SVR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY PULSE STORMS
FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO MULTICELLS WITH QUICKER STORM
MOTIONS. I WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...THE UPSTREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING IN A S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEW ENG LOW MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS THE STRONGEST
WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE DPVA FIELD...WHILE THE NAM AND SREF SHOW
ONLY MODEST SUPPORT. A TRICKY FORECAST FOR POPS ACROSS THE NC MTNS
AS THE LLVLS WILL BE EXPERIENCING AN INFLUX OF LOWER THEATA/E WHILE
A CA HIGH BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MTNS
HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SBCAPE AND VERY LITTLE ELCAPE...WHILE CINS REMAIN IN
THE 300-400 J/KG. SO...WITH SUSPECT CONV INSTABILITY AND AN
UNFAVORABLE LLVL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND MINIMAL MOISTURE...THE GRIDS
WILL BE LEFT POP FREE EXCEPT ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4KFT WHERE ISOL
TSTMS WILL POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH MECHANICAL LIFT AND THE UPPER
ENERGY SUPPORT.

ON TUES...THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA HIGH REINFORCES AND RIDGES DEEPER SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE GFS IS ACTIVATING A WARM FRONT OFF TO THE WEST AND THIS
COULD SWING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MTNS FOR A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE
THREAT....HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE LLVL RESPONSE SEEN ON THE MUCH
FURTHER NORTH NAM. SO...WILL KEEP THE GRIDS POP FREE FOR TUE. DEEP
LAYERED FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGER AND DEEP NW/LY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS CONV INITIATION THROUGH THE DAY. MAX AND
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A BIT COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE WITH THE
LOWER THETA/E AIR MIXING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MEAN UPPER LONG WAVE TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST HERE IS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
AND FORCING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
MANIFEST ITSELF AS A WARM FRONT OF SORTS MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN
SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SO...THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING COULD HAVE A SHOWER OR STORM AT ANY TIME.
SUSPECT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE...BUT THE POP WILL BE LIMITED TO CHANCE FOR THE TIME
BEING. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE US A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
MODULATED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. TEMPS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN NUDGED
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES OWING TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AT 1730Z...DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WAS SOLIDLY TIED TO THE RIDGES...WITH A SLOW DRIFT
EAST. DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND LINGERING INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA WELL INTO THE EVENING...COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE AROUND 2Z. OVERNIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENCE AND MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS KEEPING THE TAFS P6SM OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT
AND CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAFS BEFORE 18Z.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...WITH
RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             FAITH                   35.59N 80.46W
06/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       ROWAN              NC   PUBLIC

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
06/11/2011                   CABARRUS           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE TREES DOWN IN CONCORD AREA. HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE
            ALONG I-85.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             3 W FORK SHOALS         34.62N 82.36W
06/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             7 SSE GREER             34.85N 82.18W
06/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
636 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ052-112315-
HAYWOOD-
636 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
715 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVE CREEK...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...
  WAYNESVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3566 8287 3561 8285 3563 8282 3562 8281
      3561 8281 3545 8296 3561 8315 3573 8302

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

NCZ071-112315-
MECKLENBURG-
643 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTHPARK MALL...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF CENTER
CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MATTHEWS...
  EASTLAND MALL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3527 8075 3517 8061 3507 8080 3516 8087

BSH