Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RENMAIN OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH TUE.
AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE...THE
UNSEASONALBY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS
AND 12Z NAM/GFS ARE RATHER TEMPERED WITH CONVECTIVE RESPONSES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY AND
LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SCATTERED TYPE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THAT AREA IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. WITH
DAPES RATHER HIGH AGAIN...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  EXPECT THAT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET AGAIN FOR LATE TONIGHT. MCS DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARK WILL MAKE A RUN E/NE OVERNIGHT AND
COULD CLIP THE MOUNTAIN BORDER COUNTIES EARLY ON TUE. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICTING SUBSTANTIAL CIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE GA/UPSTATE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TUE AFTERNOON
WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. USED A MOS
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...BUT STAYED CLOSE TO THE LOWER MET
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TUE...BUT THIS STILL FEATURES LOWER 90S OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SUMMER-LIKE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE WHILE AN UPPER TROF SPINS INTO A MORE
COHERENT CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE CWFA LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR WEST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON 00Z FRI. DURING THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA UNTIL EARLY FRI. WITH THAT SAID...SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP ON WED AND
THURS...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ARE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. POPS DO RAMP UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY THURS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONT...HOWEVER THE TIMING FOR FROPA/PRECIP MAY HAVE TO
BE PUSHED BACK EVEN FARTHER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND/OR
PUSH THE SFC LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES FIRE
UP ON WED AND THURS...SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SFC BASED
CAPE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...SO PULSE SVR TS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MDLS...THE 23/00Z ECMWF AND THE 23/06Z GFS END UP WITH FAIRLY
CLOSE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST. A MODERATE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA THRU THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
FOR SAT...THEN UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SUN AND MON. EXPECT
LIKELY TO GOOD CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LESSER
BUT STILL DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE THU NITE AND FRI. WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING THRU THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SAT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN ON SAT WITH BEST CHC NC AND LESSER CHC NE GA AND
UPSTATE. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH CHC MTNS SLIGHT CHC
ELSEWHERE SUN AND MON. WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH WARMER THAN PREV FCST. LOWS NEARLY STEADY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND SAT BECOME WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE
AIR FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SW.

ELSEWHERE...NUNMERICAL MODELS RATHER LIMITED WITH CONVECTIVE
RESPONSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE NC
FOOTHILLS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. THEREFORE CARRIED A CB CLOUD
GROUP AT KHKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TAFS WILL FEATURE
LIGHT MAINLY SW WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHCS APPEAR
TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT KAVL AND SC AIRPORTS HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. LOOKS LIKE RADIATION FOG WILL RETURN TO THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CONDITIONS AT
KAVL AFTER 09Z.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THU WITH ONLY LATE
NIGHT FOG PRODUCING RESTRICTIONS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE THE WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-241930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-241930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
323 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA COULD BECOME
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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