Severe Thunderstorm Warning 655, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

710 
WWUS52 KGSP 252114
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NCC023-027-252145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0655.000000T0000Z-110825T2145Z/
CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
514 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN BURKE AND SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COLLETTSVILLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GAMEWELL...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...SAWMILLS AND HUDSON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8152 3581 8139 3574 8177 3591 8184
      3599 8179 3601 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 326DEG 12KT 3588 8168

$$

NED

063 
WWUS52 KGSP 252126
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NCC023-027-252133-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0655.000000T0000Z-110825T2145Z/
CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
526 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY 
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING SOUTH OF 
COLLETTSVILLE THROUGH 545 PM EDT. 

LAT...LON 3599 8152 3581 8139 3574 8177 3591 8184
      3599 8179 3601 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 326DEG 12KT 3586 8166

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND DISSIPATE ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF THE
CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE MTNS
THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO
APPROACH...BUT SHOULD HANG UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.
FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP SCT TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN THESE ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND ONLY SMALL TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE. A
HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDLANDS...BUT HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO THE UPSTATE...NE GA OF THE WRN NC PIEDMONT...AND I DON/T
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THESE ZONES.

HURRICANE IRENE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE SE COAST ON FRI. THIS WILL
SPREAD INCREASINGLY STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
FA. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NC MTNS
FRIDAY AFTN...MAINLY THE RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IN
THIS AREA...AND LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE MTNS.
HOWEVER...IT/S USUALLY DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH TO DEVELOP IN THE
SUBSIDENCE REGIME SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LESS OVER THE PIEDMONT ZONES FOR THIS REASON. WITH VERY WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES...AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE LIGHT NE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING ISOLATED MTN/FTHL DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HTG. THE 25/12 UTC OP
GFS CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE ESSENCE OF NHC/S OFFICIAL IRENE
TRACK...ALBEIT A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. AT ANY RATE...IT STILL LOOKS
LIKELY TO LIMIT THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SENSIBLE WX FRIDAY NIGHT TO
JUST ENCROACHING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE STRATOCU...AND EAST OF I-77...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BZY CONDS
AS NORTHERLY 40 KT 85H WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF IRENE NEAR.

HIGH LVL CLOUD SHIELD IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ACRS W NC SATURDAY AND
WITH A AREA OF 85-70H LYR RH DEVELOPING...CU FIELD IS PROBABLE...
ALTHOUGH IT IS DEBATABLE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE SUBSIDING AIR THAT
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. SLOWLY BACKING 85H WINDS TOP
OUT NEAR 45 KTS JUST EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR...SO AS MIXING
INCREASES...GFS BUFKIT WOULD SUPPORT SFC WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.

MODEL TIMEHEIGHTS DEPICT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE PULLING
OFF TO THE NE OF THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 6Z ON
MONDAY WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE CAROLINAS. HEIGHTS WILL
LIKELY RISE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE POLAR JET RETREATS
FARTHER NORTH AND ANOTHER H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE NORTH...AS IRENE MOVES FARTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND
BRING COOLER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. ON TUES...THE SFC
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. THE LATEST GFS MOVES THE HIGH FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
DOES. IT ALSO GENERATES MORE MOIST PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA ON
TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT TRIES TO ESTABLISH A WEDGE PATTERN TO
THE NE. I TOOK A BLEND OF THESE 2 SOLUTIONS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST
AND ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS A DEGREE
OR 2 ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CHANCES FOR MFR FOG LOOK GOOD AT THE AIRFIELD LATE
TONIGHT. THE SREF GUIDANCE HAS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EQY TO VUJ LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS LOW CLOUD FREE AND THERE ARE NO LOW CIGS IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL
GO CALM TONIGHT AND TURN OUT OF THE NE ON FRI. NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE AIRFIELD THIS PACKAGE...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE STORMS WELL TO THE WEST AND EAST.

ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR MVFR FOG AT ALL AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT WITH
A MOIST LLVL AIRMASS IN PLACE. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET AT
KAVL...THOUGH I DIDN/T GO A LOW AS GUIDANCE AS THEY WON/T BE TOO FAR
BELOW THEIR CROSSOVER TEMP. THAT DOESN/T ALWAYS WORK AT KAVL...
HOWEVER...AND THEY MAY WELL SPEND A FEW HOURS UNDER DENSE FOG BANK.
SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS LATER TODAY AND CB AND VCSH
HAVE BEEN RETAINED AT KAVL. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENUF
ELSEWHERE TO ADD CB/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHKY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NE AFTER SUNRISE ON FRI.

OUTLOOK...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCLT ON SATURDAY AS
HURRICANE IRENE MOVES UP THE COAST. SCT AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER AND LITTLE IF ANY FOG SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>510-262045-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
433 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE A FEW
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED UPON THIS FORECAST
TRACK...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-262045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
433 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED UPON THIS FORECAST
TRACK...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.