Severe Thunderstorm Warning 590, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE EAST COAST
ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY ROBUST ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH SE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE TOP ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND SLIGHTLY
LONGER LIVED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE W...BUT THE
ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE WRN HALF COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOWS
AS MUCH AS UPPER SUPPORT AT THIS POINT. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED TO
CATEGORICAL IN THE ERN PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD
ACROSS THE MTNS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THRU THE NIGHT...ESP IN NC...DUE TO CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SELY
FLOW AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AS WELL
HELPING TO KEEP LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY IN THE LINGERING
UPPER TROF. AT THE SFC...AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER SRN GA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SELY WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN AND COULD BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THU. HAVE KEPT POP AT
SCT COVERAGE FOR NOW...BUT LIKELY MAY BE NEEDED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS.
WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND LOWER THICKNESSES...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BEGINNING OF A MARKEDLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD.
VARIOUS LOBES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MID/UPPER LVLS PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER LVL TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE UPPER
MISS RIVER VALLEY AND ARRIVES AT OUR DOORSTEP BY 00Z SUNDAY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD CAUSING OUR
LOW LVL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY. LOW AND MID
LVL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERATE
SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE INFLUX IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING DURING THE
MINIMUM INSOLATION PERIOD. REGARDLESS...BY SAT EVENING I RAMP POPS
UP TO LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE NC MTS AND HIGH END SOLID CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE MTS. ON
SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA EARLY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. I EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND TS WITH SOME ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER THE BEST
DYNAMICS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH THE BEST HEATING...SO INSTABILITY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL DURING THE FROPA. THINGS WILL DRY OUT SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE CWA AND I LOWER POPS TO CHANCE
OVER THE MTS FOR ANY LINGERING NW FLOW MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART OUR
AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. POPS WILL BE MINIMAL...AND MAINLY BASED IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RESEMBLE LATE SUMMER OF
EARLY AUTUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LINE OF TSTMS FILLING IN WEST OF THE AIRFIELD WILL YIELD
TEMPO THUNDER AT KCLT THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS FROM THE NW AT
LEAST 20 KT...BUT THESE COULD BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER IF THE LINE
OR CELLS ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE VFR
CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRI ON LIGHT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN CONVECTION IS ALREADY EAST OF A KAND TO KGSP TO
KHKY LINE...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND ALONG LOW LEVEL OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
AS SELY FLOW ACTS ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHC FOR ANY
FOG IS AT KAVL. DID NOT MENTION ANY SHRA BUT THEY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT AT THE NC SITES AS WELL. EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER DAY FOR
CONVECTION FRI BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. KEPT VFR CIGS
THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE TRICKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND LEE
TROF IN PLACE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MDL BLEND WITH E TO SE WIND
BECOMING NE OVERNIGHT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE N WIND CONTINUES.

OUTLOOK...EVEN BETTER CONVECTION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER WEATHER MON AND TUE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

NCZ068-508-112015-
CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
334 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF SUNSHINE...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CASAR...
  POLKVILLE...
  LAWNDALE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3541 8145 3538 8142 3537 8192 3552 8210
      3553 8209 3554 8198 3552 8197 3554 8188
      3557 8153

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

NCZ068-070-112045-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
407 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND AND WESTERN GASTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWNDALE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SHELBY...
  CHERRYVILLE...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3547 8148 3542 8146 3542 8139 3528 8117
      3516 8131 3517 8146 3538 8170 3552 8156

ARK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORNELIUS               35.48N 80.87W
08/11/2011                   MECKLENBURG        NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BETHEL CHURCH ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             MCADENVILLE             35.26N 81.08W
08/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG HICKORY GROVE
            ROAD.

&&

HG