Severe Thunderstorm Warning 575, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...WITH ONE BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING IN ERN TN/WRN NC AT 19Z AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE DRAMATICALLY RAISED THE POP
OVER THE MTNS TO DEAL WITH THE CONVECTIVE TREND. EAST OF THE MTNS
THE PICTURE IS NOT AS CLEAR AS THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS FAVORABLE
OWING TO DEWPT IN THE LOW/MID 60S...SO THERE MIGHT BE SOME STRUGGLE
TO MAINTAIN IT OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE NAM AND 4KM WRF SUGGEST THAT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WNW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
DOWN ACROSS THE I-26/I-385 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE INCREASED THE POP
THERE AS WELL. OVER TOWARD I-77...NOT SO MUCH. SOME STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. TEMP
TRENDS HAVE NOT KEPT UP WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST...SO A HEAT ADVISORY
SEEMS LESS LIKELY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OVER THE OZARKS OR MID MS VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING...AND
THAT IT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW THE POP
TO WANE THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST CONVECTIVE LINE LEAVES...BUT WILL
RETAIN THE CHANCE POP ON THE TN BORDER IN CASE THIS WORKS OUT. MIN
TEMPS WERE KEPT ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS.

ON TUESDAY...IF THERE ARE NO CONVECTIVE REMNANTS...AN MCV IS A VERY
REAL POSSIBILITY. WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD UPPER TROF THAT IS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH SOME WEAK UPPER Q CONVERGENCE. ALMOST THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA IS IN THE SLIGHT RISK BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. THE SREF HAS A VERY HIGH POP FOR THE
AFTERNOON SO SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE. TEMPS WERE NUDGED
TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES H5 TROF ORIENTED N/S JUST TO OUR
WEST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SORT OF WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE FCST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING OVER THE REGION
LATE WED AND INTO THURS. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE AGAIN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE WEST CONUS H5 RIDGE MODERATELY
BUILDS. LATE TUES AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SE OF THE CWFA AND USHER IN DRIER NWLY FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
FIRST 6 HRS OR SO OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PW VALUES
DROPPING FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NC MTS DURING THE DAY/EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER BUT STILL PROGGED TO REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ON THURS...THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE JUST TO
OUR NORTH PROVIDING MORE NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND BRINGING TEMPS
DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN NC MTS AND FAR NE
GA ZONES FROM ABOUT NOON TO 7PM...HOWEVER PROFILES MAY BE TOO DRY TO
SEE ANY PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WILL BE USED FOR
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST. A LONG WAVE TROF WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON THE LLVL
THICKNESSES AND DECENT INSOLATION IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE OF SC. I WILL ADVERTISE SCHC
POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A NOTABLE S/W WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MID WEST
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WIDESPREAD WEAK INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT S/W...INCREASING
WIND FIELDS...AND WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THAT 30 TO 50
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH DAY. ON MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROF AXIS APPEARS
TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. BASED
ON NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND MID LEVEL PATTERN IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST
SCHC POPS ARE REASONABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY A WIND FCST. TCLT RADAR WIND PROFILE SHOWS NW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THE SFC FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR CLOUDS...ONLY A FEW
HIGH-BASED STRATOCU TO DEAL WITH...ALTHO THERE IS A VERY REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AM WATCHING CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS ERN TN WITH SOME INTEREST. WESTERLY WIND ALOFT IS LESS
FAVORABLE FOR IT REACHING THE PIEDMONT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORNING. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
ROLL IN AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THINK ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...FUNNELLED BY THE TERRAIN. CONVECTION OVER ERN TN WILL BE
WATCHED FOR IMPACT AT KAVL AND OTHER TAF SITES AND WILL AMEND
ACCORDINGLY. THE BEST CHANCE MIGHT BE AROUND KGSP AROUND 21Z AS
CONVERGENCE IN WNW FLOW MAY AID THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION...AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND WRF-NMM MODELS. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE IT OUT. LATER TONIGHT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE MTNS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. STILL EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU
THE PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-091945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-CHESTER-
344 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMMON THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-091945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
344 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE COMMON THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKESVILLE            34.61N 83.52W
08/08/2011                   HABERSHAM          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S EASTANOLEE          34.45N 83.27W
08/08/2011                   FRANKLIN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN WITHIN THE 7000 BLOCK OF HIGHWAY 320. TIME
            DETERMINED BY RADAR.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

SCZ001-002-005-082115-
GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
433 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE AND NORTHERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NINE TIMES...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...
  PICKENS...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3504 8295 3506 8276 3505 8274 3506 8271
      3507 8257 3506 8257 3505 8260 3503 8258
      3501 8260 3501 8255 3484 8250 3486 8296

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

NCZ048>050-082130-
MADISON-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
443 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MADISON...WESTERN
MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LIMESTONE TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKY FORK TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARS HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MARS HILL...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  BURNSVILLE...
  MICAVILLE...
  BULADEAN...
  BAKERSVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3615 8217 3584 8210 3580 8234 3582 8236
      3580 8251 3575 8264 3602 8273 3607 8263
      3604 8259 3597 8260 3596 8256 3602 8245
      3610 8239 3614 8230 3614 8225 3617 8220

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
444 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

NCZ053-064-065-082130-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
444 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE...HENDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEICESTER TO BENT
CREEK TO 3 MILES WEST OF ETOWAH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...
  WEAVERVILLE...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  FAIRVIEW...
  FLAT ROCK...
  BARNARDSVILLE...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3563 8227 3559 8229 3555 8222 3552 8220
      3551 8223 3547 8224 3544 8228 3539 8226
      3528 8235 3525 8235 3521 8275 3549 8266
      3570 8278 3575 8263 3579 8235

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N CARNESVILLE         34.41N 83.23W
08/08/2011                   FRANKLIN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HUNTERS CREEK ROAD.

&&

NED