Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS UPPER TROF DIGS OFF E COAST AND RIDGE AXIS RETREATS TO CENTRAL
PLAINS...EXPECT H5 DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU THIS EVE. WITH
CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...INCREASED
MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS EVE. THERE IS A CHC OF
ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WITHOUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF HVY RAIN W/TSTMS...ESP IN AREAS THAT
PICKED UP 1-2IN OF RAIN YDA. CONVECITON WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVE
AND SHOULD DIE OUT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS WILL BE
PSBL IN THE S CWA. MRNG LOWS WILL COOL TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF
AVG. SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES WELL S OF CWA MON WHILE NW DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES SO WE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS FAR S CWA
THRU EARLY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL A COUPLE DEG ABOVE
AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD SHORT TERM FORECAST
IS IN THE OFFING. THE RETURN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL ENGULF THE AREA TUE AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT WED. THE OP MODELS
DISAGREE WITH THE DEGREE OF DOWNWARD FORCING AND MLVL MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE 12Z GFS ADDING MORE ACU THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX TO
BE EXPECTED. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF
SUBSIDENCE...THE SECOND REINFORCING THE FIRST ON WED. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND A NEBULOUS DRY SFC FLOW...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND INTO
THE U90S NON/MTNS AND L90S MTN VALLEYS TUE...AND A COUPLE DEGREES
HOTTER ON WED. A GOOD MIXING OF DRY AIR TO THE SFC WILL ALLEVIATE ANY
HEAT INDEX CONCERNS BOTH DAYS...BUT AMBIENT TEMPS WILL CREATE THE
USUAL INCREASED HEAT ISSUES...SUCH AS ENCLOSED SPACES AND PERSONAL
HYDRATION. A S/W ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWFA
LATE WED AND IT/S MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ENTRAINED WITH THE
PREVAILING DRY AIR...HOWEVER ISOLATED -SHRA/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NRN NC MTNS WED EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1210 PM SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE....RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
N/NW FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...NONE ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON
CONVECTIVE PRECIP THU AFTERNOON. THIS ISNT TOO SURPRISING...
CONSIDERING THAT W AND NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
PROBABLY DICTATES THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. NEVERTHELESS...ITS RARE TO SEE A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE OVER
THE AREA THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITHOUT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION....SO CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS
WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
THICKNESS VALUES MAY YIELD MAXES A LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT-NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
AFTN-EVE. EXPECT TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT SOME TIME THRU
THIS EVE FOR VRB WINDS...TSRA...LOW CIGS AND LOW VSBY. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH...THEN LOOK FOR AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR...BECMG IFR AT KAVL. AFTER EARLY
MRNG FOG LOW CLOUD CIGS LINGER THRU THE MRNG...PSBLY MVFR BUT KEPT
THAT LAYER SCT ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SFC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH S OF THE AREA MONDAY  WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK...THEN INCRSNG AFTN CONVECTION AND
MRNG FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LOCALIZED URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THESE STORMS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NCZ503-505-311930-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASHFORD...OR 8 MILES EAST OF SPRUCE PINE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3592 8183 3583 8184 3578 8192 3582 8206
      3588 8201 3587 8200 3589 8198 3591 8198
      3592 8195 3594 8196 3595 8195

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

SCZ010-312000-
ANDERSON-
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF CENTRAL...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
CLEMSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANDY SPRINGS...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3465 8281 3467 8279 3475 8263 3466 8246
      3451 8269

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

NCZ056-068-069-504-312015-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GREATER BURKE-LINCOLN-
338 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE...SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HICKORY TO CASAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWTON...
  VALE...
  COOKSVILLE...
  BELWOOD...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3562 8105 3542 8143 3542 8145 3541 8145
      3539 8149 3553 8170 3555 8170 3577 8130

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ029-312030-
ELBERT-
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOWMAN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3409 8303 3412 8305 3414 8306 3417 8311
      3423 8306 3423 8303 3418 8291

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

SCZ011-019-312100-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
426 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF DUE WEST...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HODGES...
  DUE WEST AND COKESBURY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3435 8228 3426 8215 3421 8231 3423 8248
      3433 8246 3435 8235

MCAVOY