Severe Thunderstorm Warning 533, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

966 
WWUS52 KGSP 131858
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCC003-035-097-131930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0533.000000T0000Z-110713T1930Z/
ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-IREDELL NC-
258 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN IREDELL...CENTRAL CATAWBA AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES...

AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR STONY POINT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOOKOUT
SHOALS LAKE...CLAREMONT...SCOTTS...TURNERSBURG AND CATAWBA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8115 3592 8079 3560 8106 3591 8132
      3594 8130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 307DEG 9KT 3585 8107

$$

07

252 
WWUS52 KGSP 131924
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCC003-035-097-131934-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0533.000000T0000Z-110713T1930Z/
ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-IREDELL NC-
324 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN IREDELL...CENTRAL
CATAWBA AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3604 8115 3592 8079 3560 8106 3591 8132
      3594 8130
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 307DEG 9KT 3581 8101

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THE SFC...A SHALLOW TROF WILL EXIST PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLOW MOVING WEST TO
EAST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIAN
REGION...REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ALOFT...H7 TO H5 RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE FEATURES...WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EAST OF THE SFC TROF. BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE U90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERLAP OF THE HIGHEST TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO APPEAR ALONG AND EAST OF I-85...RESULTING
HI VALUES AROUND 105 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL PLACED AND TIMED. OTHERWISE...OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEP LAYER OF
CIN ACROSS THE CWA...ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH AN H85 INVERSION. IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTN RIDGES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
WITH COOL POOLS...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS SCT A BEST. I WILL MAINTAIN
SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND WILL REDUCE POPS TO 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
RESULT IN TYPICAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE WITH SUNSET...DRY BY THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS MAY PEAK A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
PERSISTENCE.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KGSO AND KFFC OBSERVED HIGH FZL BETWEEN 15.2 TO
15.5 KFT WITH THE WBZ ABOVE 14 KFT. CORE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY
ELEVATED...WITH THE 55 DBZ CORE NEAR 30 KFT. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES
POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. BASED ON THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE IT APPEARS THAT A
COUPLE OF SEVERE WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...PW
BETWEEN 1.9 TO 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD RESULT IN ISO
AREAS OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...AS SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO
THE REGION...SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS DEEP LAYER RH BAND
LINGERING ATOP THE SW CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF E TO SE
925-850MB FLOW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACRS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA. DO NOT PREFER THE 12 UTC NAM
MASS FIELDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT. WILL FAVOR THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION IN DEVELOPING A WEAK
SELY 85H FLOW ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES CREEPING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. GIVEN THIS...SENSIBLE WX WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...A MID CHANCE POP. GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND A
WEAK LLVL WAA/UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN. THE LATEST MOS BLEND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE GOING COOLISH MAX...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 5 DEG F BELOW
CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE OP GFS/SREF MASS FIELDS FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL IN WHERE THEY LINGER SOME DEGREE OF SELY FLOW ABOVE
WEAK SFC RIDGE. WOULD EXPECT ONLY NOMINAL CHANGES TO THE ABV NORMAL
PWAT VALUES ATOP THE REGION...WHICH IN THEORY WOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THE LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW...MAX TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG F BELOW CLIMO ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ONE MORE DAY OF
RELATIVELY COOL/SHOWERY WEATHER ON SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTER THAT...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION. THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT CUT OFF
CONVECTION COMPLETELY...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DEVELOPMENT OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH A MAJOR UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY DAY 7...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXPANDING TO THE EAST...LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS LIKELY RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEP CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOS
DESTABILIZES AND COOL POOLS ADVANCE COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. I WILL INCLUDE
A CB MENTION FOR EVERY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT...TAF SITES EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BUT
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE TERMINAL RECEIVES MEASURABLE RAIN. KAVL
WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR FOG OR LESS LATE TONIGHT...GIVEN A WARM CROSS
OVER TEMP. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SCT TO BKN DEBRIS CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG...
ESPECIALLY AT KAVL...CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NE BEGINNING SUN WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO SLIGHT
CHC FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ026-028-029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510-
SCZ001>008-141830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-141830-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009>014-019-141830-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
224 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ053-065-131900-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
216 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANDLER...OR 9 MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-26 AT
  I-40...SKYLAND...MILLS RIVER...LEICESTER...FLETCHER...CANDLER...
  BILTMORE FOREST...BENT CREEK AND AVERY CREEK.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3551 8238 3531 8257 3549 8280 3553 8278
      3554 8276 3556 8278 3557 8277 3560 8279
      3567 8272

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

NCZ035-036-056-131915-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-
228 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...NORTHERN CATAWBA AND
WESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  STONY POINT...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3603 8117 3604 8115 3591 8091 3572 8110
      3592 8134 3594 8134 3603 8124 3604 8121
      3604 8118

07