Severe Thunderstorm Warning 525, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY AND
STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA TO END THE WEEK.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1815Z...THE LATEST W/V IMAGES INDICATES A WEAK S/W MOVING OVER
THE NC MTNS. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A THICK BAND OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS EXISTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...WITH ENHANCED CU AND ISO TSRA ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST FROM THE MTNS TO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BASED
ON THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE S/W...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE SUITABLE FOR CONVECTION TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. I WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING...KEEPING A CHC POP A
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KFFC AND KGSO INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TUESDAY. THE FZL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 14 TO 15 KFT WITH WBZ ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED FEET BELOW THE FZL. CORE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE
HIGH...WITH THE 55 DBZ HEIGHT AROUND 16 KFT AND THE 50 TO 55 DBZ
HEIGHT IN THE AROUND 33 KFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER THE
HIGH CLOUDS. DEEP MOIST PROFILE WILL NOT SUPPLY AN SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF
DCAPE. SEVERAL OF THIS AFTERNOON/S STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.
THIS MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES FROM
YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. RICH MOISTURE CONTENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO APPROACH FFW RAINFALL
RATES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE WIND AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT IN THE HWO.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MODERATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS...WEAK SHEAR...AND HIGH PW VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS AND AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD VERIFY CLOSELY
TO PERSISTENCE FROM TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY....THEN MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MOIST AIR MASS
SOUTH OTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WEAKENS AND DEPARTS....FOLLOWED BY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GA ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED...
GREATEST IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW FILLS OVER SC...THEN
WILL RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BROADENS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. ON
WEDNESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD NORMAL AS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVES WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST FROM THE MTNS TO THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. I
WILL CARRY CB IN THE SKY FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. I WILL ALSO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY.
MVFR FOG LOOKS LIKELY EAST OF THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR KAVL. FOG WILL DISSIPATE ONE TO TWO HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...THE CHANCES FOR AREAS OF MORNING
FOG...LOW STRATUS...AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
513 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STATIONARY OR REPEATEDLY MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BE
VERY MOIST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

SCZ009-014-061845-
CHESTER-YORK-
154 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF LOWRYS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICHBURG...
  MCCONNELLS...LOWRYS...FORT LAWN...EDGEMOOR...CHESTER AND CATAWBA.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3470 8124 3488 8125 3493 8089 3483 8088
      3482 8089 3480 8088 3468 8087

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

GAZ029-SCZ011-061915-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
228 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIDDLETON...OR 5 MILES EAST OF ELBERTON...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RUSSELL...RUCKERSVILLE...MIDDLETON...FORTSONIA...ELBERTON AND
  CALHOUN FALLS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3399 8286 3417 8288 3422 8250 3407 8249
      3407 8253 3401 8259 3399 8257 3398 8258

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

SCZ011-019-062000-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
310 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABBEVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3398 8222 3401 8224 3399 8228 3400 8232
      3406 8234 3405 8242 3407 8249 3407 8253
      3404 8257 3422 8255 3421 8210 3398 8213
      3397 8216

HG