Severe Thunderstorm Warning 473, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SW NC...NORTHEAST GA...
NW CORNER OF SC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH AS THE STORMS DROP OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE CU FIELD IS LOOKING PRETTY HEALTHY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN PIEDMONT ZONES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE DRYING AIRMASS...WESTERLY FLOW...AND RISING
HEIGHTS...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. WITH A
REASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY CLOSE
TO CLIMO BY SATURDAY MORNING.

W/NW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HOT BUT RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SW MTNS. IN OTHER WORDS...THE SAME AREAS
SEEING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED IN THESE
LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER FORCING MOVES E OF THE AREA SAT EVE
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED WILL DIE OFF WITH COOLING.
HEIGHTS RISE SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM 4-6 DEG ABOVE AVG IN THE AFTN.
NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING BUT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY JUST TO THE S WILL
TRACK N OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH SLIGHT CHC
ELSEWHERE...WITH CHC SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA SUN-SUN NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES N AND AN H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY MOVES WELL N MON ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN WHILE AREA REMAINS IN MOIST S FLOW AT THE SFC SO CHC POPS
CONTINUE THRU MON AFTN. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER MON BUT HIGHS WILL
STILL BE ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MED RANGE MODELS HAVE CHANGED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS BUT REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TO THE W WITH A TROF TO THE E...AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVG OVER THE
AREA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THUE-WED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHWRS/TSTMS AND ABOVE AVG
TEMPS. THE MODEL CHANGE IS IN PUSHING A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY S...AHEAD
OF HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE OH VALLEY WED...THEN EITHER INTO OR S
OF THE CWA THU. ECMWF PUSHES IT THRU...THE GFS STALLS IT OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HELD ON TO LOW CHC POP ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT INTO THE MTNS THU AFTN DUE TO WEAK SE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
DEVELOPING...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. FRONT EITHER WASHES OUT OR
MOVES N OF THE CWA FRI AND WITH MOIST S FLOW OVER THE AREA HAVE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE
AVG TUE-WED...THEN ONE CAT ABOVE THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...SCT CU DEVELOPING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA IN
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION OF CB CLOUD GROUP. OTHERWISE...W/SW
WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO
HAVE SCALED THE FORECAST BACK JUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...TO AROUND
12 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. CONSIDERING THE
MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...EXPECT THEM TO REMAINS WEST OF KAVL/KGMU/
KGSP...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP NEAR KGMU/KGSP. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
LIMITED A CB CLOUD GROUP TO KAND BEGINNING AROUND 1930Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME MTN VALLEY FOG.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...WITH
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-057>059-062>065-071-072-
082-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>006-009>014-019-251900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

NCZ051-058-062-241915-
GRAHAM-MACON-SWAIN-
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRAHAM...NORTHWESTERN MACON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF TAPOCO...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANTEETLAH LAKE...
  ROBBINSVILLE...
  STECOAH...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8403 3544 8400 3551 8389
      3531 8347 3508 8359 3515 8366 3516 8374
      3521 8373 3523 8370 3525 8371 3524 8378
      3525 8384 3521 8396 3523 8400 3536 8404

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

GAZ010-NCZ062-241930-
MACON-RABUN-
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RABUN AND SOUTHERN MACON COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TATE CITY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF HIAWASSEE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OTTO...
  DILLARD...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...

DIME SIZE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8356 3499 8356
      3500 8353 3503 8354 3505 8357 3507 8359
      3513 8356 3503 8320 3471 8335 3474 8341
      3489 8365

LG

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