Severe Thunderstorm Warning 439, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

450 
WWUS52 KGSP 211940
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

NCC199-211950-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-110621T2015Z/
YANCEY NC-
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3592 8215 3617 8183 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8172 3599 8159 3575 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 233DEG 12KT 3593 8195

$$

NCC011-023-027-111-121-212015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0439.000000T0000Z-110621T2015Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
340 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...NORTH CENTRAL
MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF ASHFORD...OR 6 MILES EAST OF SPRUCE PINE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONAS
RIDGE...CROSSNORE...NEWLAND...LINVILLE...UPTON...GLOBE...EDGEMONT...
SUGAR MOUNTAIN AND GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8215 3617 8183 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8172 3599 8159 3575 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 233DEG 12KT 3593 8195

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
STALLS AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WILL MOVE NE TO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WED. AN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SW FLOW IS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS
AFTN. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING 2500 TO 3500 J/KG EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS SHOW LITTLE SIGN OF MIXING OUT. ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 TO 10 KFT...LAPS
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SW FLOW AT 30 TO 40 KT BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT
MID LEVELS. STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL CONVECTION LOOKS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT...DCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...AND SFC TO MID LEVEL
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP LAPSES OF 30 TO 35 K...55 DBZ CORE HEIGHTS
TO 23 KFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL.

THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW MAY ACTUALLY
BRUSH THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION IN THE MORNING.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY WELL AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH WED AFTN.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH COOLING 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW
MAXES TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONGOING CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA. I
HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE TO
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT. MODELS AGREE
REASONABLY WELL IN SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SETTING UP TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE BROAD UPPER
TROF SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS
AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN SHOWING AN AREA OF DRYING OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. I HAVE A HARD TIME NOT MENTIONING AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS AS RIDGE TOP STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
ENOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND UPSTATE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH NEAR 90 OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FOR FRIDAY...THE FA WILL BE UNDER A SIMILAR SITUATION ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE IMPROVING SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MOIST
PROFILES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A MUCH STRONG MODEL QPF RESPONSE THAN ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
NEARLY IDENTICAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF NOON ON TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST
AND A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE FAR SW CONUS.
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY RISE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
TROF LIFTS FARTHER NE AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF
MAINTAINING GREATER AMPLIFICATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY DAY 6 WHICH ACTS TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS DEVELOP
NUMEROUS UPPER SHORTWAVES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SFC...THE LOW LVL WLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH AND STALL.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PREDOMINATELY DIURNAL PATTERN OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY/EVENING THROUGH DAY 7 WITH OVERNIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING UPPER
SHORTWAVES. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSTMS FIRING OVER THE NC MTNS THIS AFTN COULD LAY DOWN
OUTFLOWS THAT TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
TREND...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT APPRECIABLY IN THE
PIEDMONT...SO A CB GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF AFTER 23Z FOR
THIS LIKELIHOOD. CB CIGS THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO HIGH LEVEL
VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS WILL AFFECT
KAVL THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OUTFLOWS FROM THE MTN TSTMS WILL DRIFT OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH KHKY TO KGSP PROBABLY THE NEXT MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE TSTMS AFT 22Z. WILL FEATURE CB CLOUD TYPE FOR ALL FOOTHILL TAFS
THIS EVENING. CB CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER LEVEL VFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MOS SIGNALS ARE MIXED FOR MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL COMPROMISE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z IN THE MTN VALLEYS FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
309 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             ASHEVILLE               35.57N 82.55W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT BREVARD ROAD AND I-40.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             BENT CREEK              35.51N 82.61W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             2 NE MARSHALL           35.82N 82.66W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE
            BIG PINE COMMUNITY.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             2 NE MARSHALL           35.82N 82.66W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARSHALL.

&&

ZHARGROV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             2 NW MOUNTAIN CITY      34.94N 83.41W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       RABUN              GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BETWEEN
            MOUNTAIN CITY AND RABUN GAP.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     HAIL             2 NW MOUNTAIN CITY      34.94N 83.41W
06/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       RABUN              GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS BETWEEN
            MOUNTAIN CITY AND RABUN GAP.

&&
CORRECTED FOR EVENT TIME.

BSH