Severe Thunderstorm Warning 390, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE CARE OF AN INTERNET PROBLEM AND TO TWEAK NEAR
TERM TEMP AND POP TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE WRN ZONES...AS WELL AS INCREASING NVA PER THE RUC...THE CU FIELD
HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...SPC/S MESOANALYSIS PAGE STILL SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPE
OVER THE SW ZONES. THE WRF-ARW AND NMM WORKSTATION MODELS DON/T SHOW
ANYTHING MUCH WEST OF CLT THIS EVENING. SO DESPITE THE
INSTABILITY...POPS WILL BE KEPT UNDER SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SW AND
CENTRAL MTNS...NE GA AND WRN UPSTATE. AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL
FIRE OUT THAT MAY...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. FARTHER
TO THE EAST...WHILE THERE ISN/T YET A CU FIELD OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT
OF NC AND THE NW SC PIEDMONT...THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THIS AREA. EVEN THESE LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...WILL BE HELD
UNDER 40 PERCENT.

THE SREF AND OPERATIONAL GFS SHOW DRIER AREA MOVING ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM. THIS DRY AIR WILL SETTLE
EAST OF THE MTNS ON FRI. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF CAPES VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ARE VERY LOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS SHOW A MIXED LAYER DEPTH OVER 10KFT WITH
ONLY SOME SHALLOW CAPE LIFTING ABOVE THIS LAYER. THE NAM DRIVES WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A SPURIOUS MCS ACROSS THE FA IN THE MORNING WHICH
PRETTY MUCH RUINS THE MOISTURE FIELDS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOLLOWING
THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION...I HAVE LOW POPS EAST OF THE MTNS...GENERALLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS...WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. IT WILL BE HOTTER TMRW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE L90S OUTSIDE
THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVES WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE AND MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SOME
EFFECTS OF THIS FLOW.  CONTINUE TO EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN GREATER
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS TO THE NW PIEDMONT.  MODELS
SUGGEST STRONGER ENERGY COMING ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY.  THIS IS
SHOWN MOST PROMINENT ON THE GFS AND TO A LOWER MAGNITUDE ON THE
OTHER MODELS.  AS THE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE FROM THE LOWER MID
SOUTH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ACCORDINGLY. HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE UPCOMING WEEK BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM THURSDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RESPECT
TO THE PATTERN ACRS THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS EXPECTED TO BE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF...AND THE BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PIEDMONT MAX TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 90S EACH DAY. SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED ON TUESDAY.

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN TO WHAT DEGREE AND HOW QUICKLY SE CONUS UPPER
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO LOWER HEIGHTS ENCROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON...BUT WILL TREND SLOWLY LESS HOT EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAILY...MAINLY DIURNAL CLIMO POP.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT...WHILE THERE ARE ONLY A FEW CU AROUND NOW...SCT TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE AFTN...AND
CB/S HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH THE REST OF THE AFTN WITH SW WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION WEAKENS SOME..BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
KTS AT TIMES OVER THE UPSTATE. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS LATER IN THE AFTN AND CB/S HAVE BEEN RETAINED
AT KHKY. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR TSTMS ELSEWHERE. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...NOT LOOKING FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW POCKETS OF FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION ON FRI. A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS WITH FAIR WX ELSEWHERE. A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTN AND EVENING WILL
SET UP THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-171900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
246 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT....A FEW WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-171900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-
246 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

NCZ510-SCZ007-162200-
EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-
526 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF FINGERVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST
OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3525 8196 3519 8197 3518 8188 3509 8201
      3522 8217 3529 8202

NED