Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A RETURN OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE NW THIS EVE. SFC BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED JUST S OF
THE AREA BUT THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL RESPONSE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...
MAINLY S OF THE CWA THIS EVE SO HELD ON TO ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS LATE
AFTN INTO EARLY EVE FOR FAR S-SE ZONES...OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT
THERE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/FORCING FOR STORMS. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
EVEN FARTHER S TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO BE AROUND AVG. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUE WITH LOWER
THKNS VALUES AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE NW AND
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE N. NOT MUCH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BUT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE W MTNS FROM THE SW IN
THE LATE AFTN...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE FAR W NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...A COMPLICATED PATTERN PERSISTS IN THE SHORT
RANGE. THE LOWER LATITUDE THAN NORMAL WESTERLIES AND CLOSED LOWS
HAVE BROUGHT MUCH DIFFERENCES BTW THE OP AND ENS MODELS WITH TWO
DISTINCT CAMPS DEPICTING THE H5 FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LLVL RESPONSE.

THINGS ARE RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD WED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY SITUATED
TO OUR SOUTH AND THE LOWER THETA/E AIR MIXED INTO THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER VORT PATTERN SUGGESTS INCREASING NVA
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES...WHILE THE ERN ZONES SEE A RATHER STRONG S/W
CROSSING BEFORE 18Z. THEN DURING THE LATE AFTNOON...ANOTHER STRONG
S/W APPROACHES THE MTNS. THIS IS THE GENERAL IDEA ANYWAY...AND ONE
THAT HAS SUPPORT TO SOME DEGREE BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM AND INSTIGATES MORE WIDESPREAD CONV
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW WILL PAINT THE HIGHER POPS WITH THE MORE
AGREED UPON AREA WHICH IS ACROSS THE NC MTNS. THE GOING POP GRIDS
HAVE THIS IDEA HANDLED WELL ALREADY AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE.

ON THU...THE MODELS DISAGREE HIGHLY WITH THE UPSTREAM PATTERN. IT IS
TOO COMPLICATED TO GO INTO ALL THE SPECIFIC DIFFERENCES...BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY THE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
DYNAMICAL FORCING...THE LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND THE THERMAL
CHARACTER OF THE AIRMASS. SO...THE ENS APPROACH WAS GIVEN THE MOST
WEIGHT...WHICH KEEPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DPVA CROSSING THE AREA WITH
GOOD LLVL THETA/E ADV AND POSSIBLY A THETA/E RIDGE DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ANY CASE...THU LOOKS TO BE THE MORE UNSTABLE
AND MORE DYNAMICALLY FORCED DAY CWFA/WIDE. THE GOING MID CHANCE POPS
STILL LOOK GOOD AND WERE ONLY BUMPED UP A COUPLE PERCENT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THU. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE CATS ABOVE NORMAL WED...BUT PERHAPS JUST
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU AS EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE H5 S/W AND FRONTAL POSITION IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON FRIDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FCST AREA. THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...AND UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS NOT
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN OR THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A POTENT LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LINGER THRU DAY 7. THE
MODELS GENERATE NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ON SAT...SUN...AND MON WITH THE GFS BEING MORE BULLISH ON
THEIR OVERALL AMPLITUDE. AT THIS TIME...THE SFC PATTERN IS DIFFICULT
TO GET A HANDLE ON B/C THE BERMUDA HIGH IS WEAK AND MUCH OF THE LOW
LVL FLOW IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A FEW WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES THAT GET PUSHED OVER THE
CAROLINAS THRU THE PERIOD...YET THEY WONT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS. THEY COULD HELP PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SH/TS EACH DAY/EVENING THOUGH. TEMPS WERE BUMPED
UP A DEGREE OR 2 TO REFLECT THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES
MORE EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP VALUES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SCT CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS IN NW FLOW.
WINDS WILL BE MORE SW-W AT KAND THIS AFTN WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. A
FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE N.

OUTLOOK...DRIER HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TUE NIGHT.
CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NE ACROSS THE AREA...MOISTURE INCREASES...THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST. CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
EACH DAY WED THRU FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ057-062>065-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-141900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ROWAN-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
254 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-501>506-141900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
254 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAREMONT               35.71N 81.15W
06/12/2011                   CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CONOVER FD REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN CLAREMONT IN
            THE I-40 AREA.

&&

ZHARGROV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

SCZ002-003-005-006-132245-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-
605 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUMPKINTOWN...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PICKENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...CHERRYDALE POINT...LAKE ROBINSON...FURMAN
  UNIVERSITY...TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...TRAVELERS REST...PUMPKINTOWN...
  PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...MARIETTA...DACUSVILLE...CLEVELAND...
  CAESARS HEAD AND BEREA.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3500 8274 3513 8265 3514 8261 3514 8258
      3504 8228 3482 8243

07