Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1745Z...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/TOPO
AFFECTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
LITTLE OR NO WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT SOPME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE TALLEST
STORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION WILL WANE
QUICKLY ABOUT SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEBRIS CLOUSDS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENIGN ALLOWING FOR CLEAR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON
THU...IT APPEARS CIN WILL BE MUCH LESS ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIALLY
MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE PIEDNMONT AREAS. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST BEGINS AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND 500MB HEIGHTS FALL. NO SIGNIFICANT SFC
PATTERN CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING SH/TS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS ON BOTH
THU AND FRI. WITH A LITTLE MORE WLY FLOW OVER THE REGION ON
FRI...AND A WEAKER RIDGE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE BETTER
ON FRI. THOUGH WITH THE LACK OF FORCING...POPS ONLY MAX OUT AROUND
30 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...ON SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MARGINAL LLVL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...LLVL WIND FIELDS APPEAR VERY WEAK...GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KTS BELOW 15 KFT. I WILL FAVOR CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AN THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH SCHC ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN A BROAD MID LEVEL TROF
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND WEAK TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AIR MASS SHRA/TSRA. I WILL LIMIT COVERAGE IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN 5
TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MRNG MVFR FOG AT
KAVL AGAIN EARLY ON THU. EXPECT SCT CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSTMS IN THE MTNS INTO EARLY EVE...THEN GENLY
SKC OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY SW. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
GET GOING A LITTLE EARLIER ON THU AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THU...BUT WILL NOT CARRY A CB AT THIS TIME AT
KAVL.

OUTLOOK...BASED ON LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON THU....THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THU AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH LATE
WEAK ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
SUN WITH PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH ITS
PASSAGE. EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET EACH DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-091045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
638 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-091045-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
638 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
842 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE SPRUCE PINE       35.86N 82.04W
06/07/2011                   MITCHELL           NC   POST OFFICE

            TREES AND LARGE LIMBS ON BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY, PEA SIZE
            HAIL.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
855 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E ROBBINSVILLE        35.32N 83.72W
06/07/2011                   GRAHAM             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            2 TREES DOWN ON HWY 143/SWEETWATER RD BEFORE HWY 28.
            MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW MARSHALL           35.82N 82.71W
06/05/2011                   MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL TREES AND LIMBS DOWN ON RIDDLE FARM RD.

&&

TBENTHAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-081745-
MACON-RABUN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
1248 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM
EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCALY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALSO DRIFTING TOWARD THE
WEST.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND SOUTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

OTTO...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3517 8336 3511 8302 3510 8302 3491 8318
      3498 8346

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

NCZ033-050-503-505-081845-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
151 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF ASHFORD...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD AND SPRUCE PINE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3592 8179 3572 8201 3571 8203 3584 8215
      3585 8214 3586 8215 3589 8215 3605 8194

MOORE