Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH INCREASING DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1800Z...DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWER TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
MAKES A BETTER CASE FOR OVERCOMING THE LOW LEVEL CIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUDNERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAPS CAPES NOW EXCEED
5000J/KG MOST AREAS WITH DAPES AROUND 1000J...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN LARGE
HAIL DESPITE THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. LATEST LOCAL WRF ARW NOT TOO
KEEN ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES...BUT THE WRF NMM CORE AND HRRR DEVELOP
SCATTERED STORMS AS WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. CURRENT POP FIELD FEATURING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND ESCARPMENT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS
THE UPSTATE INTO NE GA OVERNIGHT. WEAK VEERING WIND FIELD WILL
PRODUCE A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN
UPSTATE/NE GA INTO FAR WESTERN NC ON THU. ALL MODELS RESPOND WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION THOSE AREAS THU AFTERNOON. USED THE 3
HOURLY SREF POPS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THU AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR WILL MANAGE TO MOVE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/
PIEDMONT WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES THERE ON THU.

IT WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT ON THU. HOWEVER WITH THAT SAID...TEMPS WILL
BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND INCREASED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...AND MARGINALLY LOWER THICKNESSES
EAST. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON FRIDAY
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH OVER THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD SAT/EARLY
SUN...ASIDE FROM THIS NO OTHER MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
THRU THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL CONTINUE A PATTERN OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ON FRI AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SAT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. I KEPT A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POP OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SH/TS ON FRI AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NC MTS AND NE GA FOR SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE MOST RECENT RECENT FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING BETTER OVERALL
INSTABILITY ON FRI AND POSSIBLY A BETTER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FIELD
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS A
BLOCKING PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT PATTERN PLACES AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MS RIVER WITH RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD AMONGST THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE...RAISING CONFIDENCE THAT OUR RECENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHTS FALLING JUST A BIT TO BRING
TEMPS BACK DOWN TO MERELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DEEP CONVECTION
IS HIGHLY DOUBTFUL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THIS PATTERN. BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN SO CLIMO IS ALLOWED TO CREEP IN.
THAT MEANS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MTNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAIN FOCUS IS ON
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ATMOSPHERE HAS HIGH
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT NEEDS TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LOWER LEVELS. BELIEVE THAT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER WIDELY STORMS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
HENCE...WILL INCLUDE A CB MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVL/KAND.
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR FOG
RESTRICTIONS 10Z-13Z MAINLY KAVL/MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...BUT ALSO AT
KCLT.

OUTLOOK...WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE WEEKEND EACH AFTERNOON.
EARLY MRNG VALLEY FOG WILL BE PSBL EACH DAY...MAINLY MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
                  GSP  96
                  CLT  98
                  AVL  93

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-020945-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
533 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>010-020945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-
533 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.