Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

777 
WWUS52 KGSP 270229
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1029 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

GAC137-270239-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-110327T0245Z/
HABERSHAM GA-
1029 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3454 8364 3456 8363 3450 8345 3448 8346
      3448 8356 3444 8360 3443 8362 3447 8365
      3451 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 282DEG 43KT 3444 8345

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD APPEAR THAT NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE IS SAFELY
WITHIN OUR STABLE SURFACE WEDGE BUBBLE...THE 00Z SOUNDING AT KFFC
SHOWED DECENT ELEVATED CAPE. LARGE THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING ACROSS NRN
GEORGIA APPEAR TO BE THRIVING OFF THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WILL
PROBABLY CROSS INTO THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE THEY DIE. WIND GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS THE SURFACE BASED VERY STABLE
LAYER WILL KEEP DOWNDRAFTS FROM PENETRATING TO THE GROUND. HAIL IS
ANOTHER STORY AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PROLIFIC HAIL PRODUCERS OUT
TO OUR WEST. SO...WE HAVE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE AREA S OF THE NC BORDER AND WEST OF
GREENVILLE/LAURENS COUNTIES. THE UPDATE WILL BUMP UP THE THUNDER
CHANCES AND MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP/DEWPT...OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS/NRN
MOUNTAINS OF NC.

PREV DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SRN MO...WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A VERY SHALLOW SLOPING FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
THIS WAVE. HOW SHALLOW? THE GFS TAKES THE H8 LOW ACROSS SRN KY
TONIGHT AND OFF THE VA COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ACROSS N CENTRAL AL/GA OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE SC COAST
SUN MORNING.

THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF INTERESTING WEATHER. AT THE
SFC...COLD AIR DAMMING HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.
THE CAD BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT
ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE MOULTRIE TO AUGUSTA AND ATLANTA. THIS WILL
KEEP US OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS GOOD AND STRONG SHEAR AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM
AIR. AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR...THIS WILL ALSO
SERVE TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE WEDGE-RIDGE. SO FAR
TODAY...AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE WRN PART OF
THE UPSTATE AND MTNS AND FOOTHILLS OR NE GA. WHILE LLVL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...RAINFALL RATES HAVE
ALREADY DECREASED TO 0.05 TO 0.15 IN/HR IN THIS AREA. WITH THE SFC
FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AND THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE PUSHING
EAST...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TONIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED H8 LOW. THIS
COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SHRA AND ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH...AND I/LL KEEP 100 POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH IS ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE NC MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE AND H8
LOW APPROACH. THE LLVL WIND FIELD ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE H8 BNDRY
INCREASES TO 40+ KTS TONIGHT. EVEN WITH DISRUPTED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THE NC ZONES SHOULD SEE PCPN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE H8 FRONT STARTING TO
ACTIVATE TO OUR WEST OVER MIDDLE TN AND SW KY. AN ELEVATED TSTM OR
TWO IS ALSO A GOOD BET OVER THE MTNS LATER THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS
FORCING WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE BARRIER JET
BECOMES STRONGER AND LLVL ERLY FLOW INCREASES...TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO FREEZING TONIGHT.
THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW HAVE FREEZING RAIN AT
BOONE...FOR EXAMPLE. THE WORST WEATHER SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA...BUT THE NRN MTNS AND WRN FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. I
DON/T HAVE MUCH GLAZE IN THE GRIDS...BUT I SUSPECT UP TO A TENTH OF
INCH OR SO ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION.

PCPN WILL END SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ABOUT THE ONLY PLACE THAT MAY SEE CLEARING
WOULD BE THE SW NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST BEGINS AT 12Z ON
SUNDAY WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A BROAD AND
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WHILE A FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE DIGS DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
EARLY TUES. AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND ERODES THE CAD PATTERN IN
PLACE OVER THE CWFA. THE LOW SLIDES OFFSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY WHILE
SFC RIDGING PUSHES BACK DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH
WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AND
INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WRT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEYOND
THAT...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIVERGE WITH SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE SENSIBLE FCST.

LATE SUNDAY MODEST DRYING TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...YET MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF 1000-850MB
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE CWFA WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. POPS
DIMINISH...WITH PRECIP ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...JUST
BEFORE COLDER AIR LOWERS TEMPS TO AROUND FREEZING. ON MONDAY...THE
NAM BRINGS SOUTHERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BACK OVER THE SFC
RIDGE...SUPPORTING DEEPER CLOUD COVER....WHILE THE GFS KEEPS ITS
FLOW WESTERLY OVER OUR AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE AREA THRU TUES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SPREADING BACK TO THE WEST. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING SHOULD
NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS AROUND 40 OVER THE SC UPSTATE AND
MID 30S FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS AND MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MI ON WED...AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
THU...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES FORM THE
ROCKIES TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
FRI. ON SAT THE ECMWF BECOMES UNCHARACTERISTICALLY FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE TROUGH...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO REACH THE
APPALACHIANS.

COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE ONGOING WED...BUT WILL BE SCOURED BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU...BUT A WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRI WILL LIMIT THE ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WEST TO OUR AREA. MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW ON SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. SATURDAY FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE TAF PAINTS A GRIM PICTURE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO
AS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP HAS LOCKED IN A WEDGE OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT. AM SURPRISED THE CEILING HAS REMAINED IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
THIS LONG...BUT FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WITH SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL SHRINK A BIT MORE AND IFR CLOUD DECK OVER UPSTATE SC WILL
SPREAD EAST OVER CLT METRO AS UPGLIDE STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF 850
MB LOW. BROUGHT CEILING DOWN TO IFR AT 02Z...AND FINALLY LIFR AT
08Z. THAT CONDITION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM
ADVECTION BRIEFLY WANE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE WEDGE POOL WILL BE
STUBBORN. THINK THAT WEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIFT CEILING TO IFR
AROUND MIDDAY AND EVENTUALLY MVFR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH THAT IT WILL ALL COME CRASHING DOWN AGAIN AROUND SUNSET
SUNDAY EVENING AND STAY IFR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...IN THE PROCESS OF BRINGING CEILING DOWN TO IFR AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. KHKY HAS BEEN SLOW TO COME DOWN...BUT NEW ROUND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BRING THE CEILING DOWN THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY
TO IFR BY 04Z AT THE LATEST. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE SOME WEAKENING OF THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED. THINK
ALL SITES WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
HESITATE ON BREAKING UP LOW CLOUD CEILING.

OUTLOOK...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY WINDOWS OF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE HAVE A LOW DEGREE OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ033-050-
     501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

NCZ033-050-501-503-505-280145-
AVERY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-049-056-057-065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-SCZ003-
006>009-012>014-280145-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL HAIL IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-280145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
GREENWOOD-
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 66 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>064-280145-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
940 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS WEST OF INTERSTATE 26. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

GAZ010-270200-
RABUN-
936 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 932 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TITUS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF HIAWASSEE...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...
  NACOOHE LAKE...
  MOUNTAIN CITY...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3494 8359 3495 8356 3499 8355 3500 8333
      3497 8312 3494 8311 3493 8315 3488 8321
      3488 8324 3482 8327 3472 8340 3474 8344
      3472 8351 3481 8359 3482 8362 3487 8367

ARK