Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

098 
WWUS52 KGSP 262014
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

NCC075-099-113-173-262045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-110526T2045Z/
GRAHAM NC-MACON NC-SWAIN NC-JACKSON NC-
414 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL SWAIN...MACON AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NANTAHALA LAKE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANDREWS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAINBOW
SPRINGS...KYLE...WESSER...ALMOND...FRANKLIN...LUADA...GAY...BRYSON
CITY AND ALARKA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8341 3523 8316 3503 8356 3515 8366
      3516 8374 3519 8372 3521 8373 3524 8370
      3525 8371 3524 8373 3524 8378 3525 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 238DEG 26KT 3516 8368

$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
WASH OUT OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 1730Z...A QUICK UPDATE FOR AVIATION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR
TERM PUBLIC FORECAST AS WELL. AN UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACRS THE
OH/TN VLYS AND LIFT NE THRU THE APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROF WILL BE STRONGEST FROM LATE
THIS AFTN WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON
DECENT UPPER DIVERGE AS WELL DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SHEAR AND
INSTBY WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THRU THE NIGHT. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SVR TSTM WATCH TO OUR WEST...INCLUDING FOUR NC COUNTIES
(SEE WCNGSP). CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THIS ACTIVITY MORPHING INTO A
MULTI-CELL LINE AS IT ENTERS THE CWA AROUND 20-22Z TIME FRAME. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH THE
CLOUDS AND MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA...WITH PLENTY OF
LINGERING MOISTURE. UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD CONTINUE THRU 18Z AS THE
TROF PIVOTS TO NEGATIVE TILT AND SLOWS. HAVE BLENDED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS ON POPS...RESULTING IN LIKELY THRU THE AFTN (ESPECIALLY
ERN HALF OF THE CWA). SHEAR WEAKENS AND UPPER DIVERGE
DECREASES...BUT INSTBY SHUD INCREASE WITH HEATING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SO DO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSTMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MODEST. NEW SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS
JUST SEE TEXT. THE MET AND MAV IN DISAGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPS. WENT
WITH WARMER MAV BASED ON CONTINUITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH ONGOING DIURNAL CONVECTION. EXPECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MOVING FURTHER EAST. SATURDAY
WILL SEE THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING REMNANT UPPER
TROF AND RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW. EXPECT STILL
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE WILL BE LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE
BETTER INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE
COLUMN...COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A MORE PROMINENT INVERSION AND CAP
AT AROUND 700 MB...BUT SOME SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP KICK
OFF MORE SCATTERED RIDGE TOP CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT COULD
HELP PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

INTO SUNDAY...THE THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ASSERT ITSELF OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A VERY PROMINENT UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
LIMITED AND WE WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
AND THE RIDGE TOPS FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY WITH
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH PAVES THE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE WED NIGHT THU TIMEFRAME. MON THROUGH WED WILL FEATURE
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOT TEMPERATURES AND SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THU WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH THICKENING CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME
5000FT-BASED CU THIS AFTN. GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING...AS BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CLT AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LINGERING SHRA/TSRA MAY REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA...SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...MAY
SEE MVFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. THE MAIN
THING WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. HAVE HIGH
ENUF POP TO ADD MENTION AT 15Z WITH CB.

ELSEWHERE...GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET.
GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING. BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
BETWEEN 20Z TO 6Z. HAVE TWEAKED TIMING OF SHRA/CB MENTION...AS ALL
ACTIVITY STILL HOURS AWAY AND NOT VERY ORGANIZED AS OF 18Z. POCKETS
OF IFR CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KAVL. VSBY LESS OF A CONCERN UNLESS WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS. A
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING BY
MIDDAY. POPS ARE HIGH ENUF TO WARRANT MENTION AT ARND 15Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE. DRY AND WARM AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID WEEK.
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-271930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
331 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>014-019-
271930-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
331 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE