Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

594 
WWUS52 KGSP 222223
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCC021-115-199-222300-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-110522T2300Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-
623 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL YANCEY...EAST CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BARNARDSVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURNSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
MITCHELL STATE PARK...MICAVILLE...CELO AND BUSICK

LAT...LON 3593 8218 3593 8215 3581 8214 3579 8217
      3576 8217 3575 8239 3577 8251 3585 8247
      3589 8249 3597 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 269DEG 13KT 3582 8243

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WOULD EXPECT DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACRS THE NC
MTNS INTO EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF EASTWARD RIPPLING
IMPULSE ENCROACHES. WITHIN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
ENHANCED FLOW AROUND NEARING IMPULSE...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVE BUT EXPECT AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER MTNS THRU THE NIGHT AS WEAK H5 VORTICES
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE M60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND 50S IN THE MTNS. WX PATTERN MON LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS FORCING ALOFT. IN ANY CASE TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE 90S...80S MTNS AGAIN AND EXPECT CHC TSTMS MTNS INTO N
NC PIEDMONT...SLIGHT CHC AGAIN ACROSS S CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH THE LONGWAVE H5 RIDGE AXIS WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST AND THE
UPPER TROF AXIS FAR TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED WRT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE PERIOD.
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY WARM
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH SWLY LOW LVL FLOW EACH DAY/EVENING. ALL OF
THE OP MODELS GENERATE SOME DEGREE OF PVA EMBEDDED WITHIN NUMEROUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT PROPAGATE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE FIRST 24HRS
OR SO OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH WRT SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION ON TUES...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
DOWNPLAYING THEIR AMPLITUDE AND PROXIMITY TO THE CWFA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO GENERATE MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE MTNS AND LOWER CAPE VALUES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.
OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SH AND TS ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MTS
WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT STAYING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS
WILL CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S FOR THE MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
RATHER ABRUPT AND DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN MEAN TROUGHING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS
AND ECMWF ESTABLISH A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAY 7. THE UPSHOT WOULD BE A TRANSITION
FROM VERY WARM/DRY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING MID-WEEK...TO A
WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN BY FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WITH THIS IN MIND...HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POPS (I.E. SOLID CHANCES) WILL
BE FEATURED IN THE FORECAST SUITE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WX THREAT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE MATURING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUOUS FEED OF ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN OCCURRENCE OF
CONVECTION BEING LESS STRONGLY TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...
SO SOLID POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS THE
COOLER/WETTER PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK...TEMPS
WILL BE AROUND...IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OH VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. CU WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD STAY N OF KCLT BUT INCLUDED CB CLOUDS
IN TAF AFT 23Z. KAVL AND KHKY WILL SEE BETTER CHC SO HAVE VFR LOW
CLOUD CIGS...CB AND VCSH. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
EVE...THEN THERE IS A CHC OF MVFR FOG...MAINLY NC TERMINALS
INCLUDING KCLT. EXPECT GENERALLY SW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXCEPT NEAR
SHWRS.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THRU THU AS A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWER CIG/VIS IN AND AROUND SCT
AFTN-EVE TSTMS EACH DAY...AND EARLY MRNG FOG. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE W FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH/RB
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-232200-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
548 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001>003-232200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
548 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-232200-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

NCZ048-222115-
MADISON-
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRING CREEK...OR 12 MILES
WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  MARSHALL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3580 8253 3571 8291 3575 8292 3574 8295
      3575 8296 3578 8295 3580 8297 3585 8292
      3597 8276

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             2 NE MARSHALL           35.82N 82.66W
05/22/2011  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL ON HIGHWAY 25 BYPASS

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
556 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             3 N MARSHALL            35.84N 82.68W
05/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0535 PM     HAIL             3 N MARSHALL            35.84N 82.68W
05/22/2011  E1.75 INCH       MADISON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

KRENTZ