Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

018 
WWUS52 KGSP 132051
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCC023-111-161-132130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-110513T2130Z/
MCDOWELL NC-RUTHERFORD NC-BURKE NC-
451 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BURKE...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHERN
MCDOWELL COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SUGAR HILL...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MARION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THERMAL
CITY...FERO...GLENWOOD...LAKE JAMES...GLEN ALPINE...DYSARTSVILLE AND
NEBO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH 
THIS STORM...BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8172 3539 8212 3541 8215 3540 8220
      3543 8228 3546 8227 3546 8225 3549 8223
      3552 8222 3553 8217 3555 8221 3559 8220
      3584 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 235DEG 12KT 3556 8206

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL LINGER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VIGOROUS IMPULSE RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF DAMPENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN LOCALLY SEVERE TSTM ORGANIZATION ACRS THE
MTNS INTO THIS EVENING. ACRS THE NC FTHLS/PIEDMONT...WHERE SFC DWPTS
SHOULD NOT CRASH...AS THEY HAVE DONE SO ACRS THE UPSTATE AND NE
GA...TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO EXPAND IN CVRG WITHIN DEVELOPING
MODERATE INSTABILITY. PROBABLY WILL SEE A DIURNAL WEAKENING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME...SLIGHT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO ROTATE INTO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY STANDS
THE CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH SATURDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5-7 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRI...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SHRA AND TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS. A WELL DEFINED
SHORT WAVE WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND PUSH EAST OF THE FA SAT MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA
UNDER NVA UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. EVEN AS PVA STARTS TO IMPROVE AGAIN
IN THE AFTN...A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA. WINDS UP AROUND H5 WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP. AS THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS HAS
BEEN OVERTURNED BY CONVECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS MAKES SENSE.
THEREFORE...WHILE I THINK THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE...I DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. I DID CUT
POPS A HAIR...BUT I/VE KEPT THEM IN THE LIKELY RANGE.

WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE MID-WEST. HOWEVER...THE LLVL AIRMASS WILL BE
MUCH DRIER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE GENERALLY CAPPED. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...AND SCT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC MTNS WHERE NW FLOW WILL AID
ASCENT...AND OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NRN PIEDMONT WILL LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONSIDERABLE SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES A
STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MON AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND FORCING BRINGS QUITE A BIT OF PCPN THE
FA...ESPECIALLY THE NC ZONES...LATE MONDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THE WAVE...DROPPING IT TOWARD THE GULF. THEREFORE
IT/S DRIER ON MONDAY...BUT WETTER ABOUT 36 HOURS LATER. I COULD GO
ON AS NEARLY EVERY MODEL IS DIFFERENT. IN SHORT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW STARTING MONDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH THIS PACKAGE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS RESULTS IN A LOT OF
30 TO 50 PERCNET TYPE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED BY THE MID SHIFT. A COMPLEX UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL BE ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS.

THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN WITH THE LOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE LATER TWO
MODELS WERE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY TAKE ONE SHORT
WAVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...THEN BRING IT UP THE COAST
ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TUE INTO WED MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. IF THIS HAPPENS...PARTS OF
THE FA WOULD SEE A GOOD RAIN EVENT LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. I HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT OWING TO THE RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES IN THE FINER SHORT WAVE FEATURES OVER THE REGION...WE/LL
NEED TO WAIT A FEW RUNS BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER.

CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE LATER WED INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME OF
THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING PCPN BACK INTO THE FA BY THE END OF
DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SSW WINDS 6-8 KTS WILL BE SEEN THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND
SCT VFR LVL CU SHOULD BE OCNLY BROKEN AND PERHAPS DEVELOP INTO
CB/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING
AS TSTM CHANCES INCREASE. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. IT IS UNCERTAIN ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PRE-DAWN MVFR CLOUDS AND VSBY AROUND THE NC PIEDMONT...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN CVRG ACRS THE NC MTNS/FTLHS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
MID TO LATE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AS WIDESPREAD FOG. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS
SATURDAY MORNING WEARS ON.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH END OF WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN
FELL THE NIGHT BEFORE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH/JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-065-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>014-019-142000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>064-501>506-142000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

NCZ053-065-505-507-132015-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHEASTERN
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAT CAVE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING NEAR SKYLAND ALONG INTERSTATE
26...ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN BUNCOMBE...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BAT CAVE AND OLD FORT...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3563 8206 3560 8203 3552 8209 3539 8230
      3547 8266 3572 8238

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HAIL             4 WSW OLD FORT          35.62N 82.24W
05/13/2011  E1.75 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTS BEING CALLED INTO 911 FROM
            INTERSTATE 40.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

GAZ026-028-132100-
FRANKLIN-HART-
427 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN AND WESTERN HART
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARNESVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARNESVILLE...
  LAVONIA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3423 8336 3426 8334 3432 8340 3439 8339
      3447 8326 3448 8318 3452 8312 3436 8299
      3424 8325 3426 8331 3422 8335

RB