Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

231 
WWUS52 KGSP 112331
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

NCC099-SCC073-112340-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-110511T2345Z/
JACKSON NC-OCONEE SC-
731 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO RABUN COUNTY...SO THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY. A 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF OCONEE COUNTY 
UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3500 8332 3507 8328 3502 8312 3499 8310
      3497 8312 3495 8312 3493 8314 3493 8315
      3489 8321 3488 8320 3488 8323 3486 8324
      3486 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 357DEG 6KT 3493 8330

$$

GAC241-NCC113-112345-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-110511T2345Z/
RABUN GA-MACON NC-
731 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND NORTHEASTERN RABUN COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8332 3507 8328 3502 8312 3499 8310
      3497 8312 3495 8312 3493 8314 3493 8315
      3489 8321 3488 8320 3488 8323 3486 8324
      3486 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 357DEG 6KT 3493 8330

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE AREA. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM...MOST OF THE FA IS UNDER A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE SW MTNS OF
NC...MOST OF NE GA AND THE GOLDEN CORNER OF THE UPSTATE. SREF BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE UNDER 30KTS IN THESE AREAS...SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE MORE TROUBLE ORGANIZING. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
SBCAPE VALUES ARE OVER THE SW PART OF THE FA...SO PULSE SEVERE IS
POSSIBLE EVEN THERE. PER THE RUC...THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SEEN ON THE OHX SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOULD HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE FA BY NOW. ALL OF THIS BODES WELL FOR STRONG STORMS AGAIN TODAY.
WITH THE STEEP...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE
HAIL IS STILL LIKELY...ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE SFC WIND FIELDS MATCH THE NAM/RUC/GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK SFC
FRONT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN GSP AND CLT...EXTENDING BACK UP TOWARD AVL.
THE AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE...FAVORED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...IS IS
PROBABLY WHERE THE STORMS WILL INITIATE. THE 12 UTC 4 KM WRF ALSO
SHOWS ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FA LATE THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN NC ZONES. SO EVEN THOUGH NOTHING
HAS DEVELOPED YET...LIKELY POPS WILL BE RETAINED OVER THE NC BLUE
RIDGE...FOOTHILLS...WRN PIEDMONT AND THE NRN UPSTATE AS IT/S ONLY A
MATTER OF TIME UNTIL STORMS DEVELOP. FORTUNATELY...THE WEAKER MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING AS ORGANIZED OR STRONG AS
WE HAD LAST NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY TONIGHT...SO ONCE STORMS
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION OR DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING THAT SHOULD BE
IT. A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN THE WINDS OUT OF THE
E OVER MOST OF THE FA TONIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THU
WITH ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THU
NIGHT-FRI AND OVER THE OH VALLEY SAT. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY FRI AND INTO THE W CWA SAT.
WARM...MOIST S FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVG WITH AT LEAST A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEG COOLER SAT WITH OVC SKIES AND LIKELY CONVECTION OVER THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS...SOLID CHC ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LOW
AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT-SUN. EXPECT
A SOLID CHC OF SHRWS/TSTMS WITH TEMPS ABOVE AVG IN THE WARM S FLOW
AS THE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS
SE INTO THE UPPER TROF OVER THE E US MON-TUE TO KEEP A CHC OF
CONVECTION IN THE AREA. UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE WED WITH DRYER
AIRMASS MOVG IN BEHIND IT BUT SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW AS IT
TRACKS NW SO HELD ON TO CHC POPS...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS...WED AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG MON...BELOW AVG TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALL DAY AT KCLT. AS A
STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AIRFIELD...THE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK INTO THE EVENING. AT SOME POINT THE WINDS SHOULD
TURN OUT OF THE SE AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE FOOTHILLS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE THAT FOOTHILL LEE TROUGH AND THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE
STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP...TIMING IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN. MY
GUESS IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
00 UTC. LATER TONIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP AS WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
MTNS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH LIKE KCLT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THEY SHOULD START FIRST
AROUND KAVL AND THEN PUSH SE. KAND MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH
FOR THE BEST COVERAGE...BUT KGSP...KGMU AND KHKY HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING SOMETHING STARTING AROUND 21 OR 22 UTC. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NRN UPSTATE...WITH IFR UP INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS. KAVL WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH END OF WEEK. MORNING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN
FELL THE NIGHT BEFORE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
258 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE BLUE RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             3 SW MOUNTAIN REST      34.84N 83.19W
05/11/2011  E2.75 INCH       OCONEE             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OCONEE COUNTY RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL TO
            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ON WHETSTONE ROAD...SW OF MOUNTAIN
            REST.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
611 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             3 SW WALHALLA           34.74N 83.10W
05/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       OCONEE             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HESSE HIGHWAY AND ROCK CRUSHER ROAD.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             9 NNW SALEM             35.01N 83.04W
05/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AT THE BAD CREEK HYDRO
            STATION.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-007-112315-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-POLK
MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
624 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUXEDO...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF TRYON...ALSO
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...
SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR AND TIGERVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3532 8235 3526 8220 3509 8212 3506 8222
      3500 8245 3525 8255 3532 8246

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
643 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             BREVARD                 35.24N 82.73W
05/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
649 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 SSE BREVARD           35.18N 82.70W
05/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS LASTED FOR ALMOST 30
            MINUTES.

&&

BSH