Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
WESTWARD AND THEN DISSIPATE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2140 UPDATE...POPS...SKY COVER...AND QPF HAVE BEEN RAISED IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE OF NC...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
UPSTATE SC...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

WOULD EXPECT MLCIN TO ERODE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF POTENTIAL TRIGGERS TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN DEEP CONVECTION NEARS. SHORT RANGE MODEL RESPONSE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WX...CLICKING OFF QPF
ACRS THE NC MTNS/FTLHS THRU LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE
PIEDMONT THRU EARLY EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD INFER THAT
ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR WX WILL DEVELOP/TRANSLATE
SE ACRS WESTERN NC CLOSER TO SYNOPTIC SCALE BNDRY/LLVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS...AND WILL PLAN ON INCLUDING WORDING AS SUCH IN THE FCST.
PERHAPS EVEN INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT STILL
REMAINS FUZZY ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR TRACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WX OUTSIDE OF TSTM CHANCES WILL BE FAIR
AND QUITE MILD WITH LATE NIGHT FOG PROBABILITIES AND WED AM MIN
TEMPS 8-10 DEG F ABV CLIMO. UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF TO OUR WEST POKES A
BIT FURTHER EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MODERATE...ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES
WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACRS THE SW HALF OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE EXPECTEDLY LESS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
TODAY...ISOLATED...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SVR STORMS WILL BE PROBABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION
CARRYING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE NW FLOW AND THEN A DECREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD.
GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE OVER NE GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WIND FIELDS.  NOT A BIG CONCERN AS OF THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONCERN PICKS UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  CAPE VALUES VARY DEPENDING OF THE MODEL BUT MAINLY 1000
TO 1500 IN THE GA TO CAROLINA PIEDMONT. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 80S
UPPER SAVANNAH TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE TRIAD. HIGHS FRIDAY
FROM LOWER 80S UPPER SAVANNAH TO UPPER 70S NW NC PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY MONDAY. LEANED HEAVILY ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH
UTILIZED THE ECM/ECM ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON THEN THE ECM/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WESTERN CAROLINAS COMING UNDER INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE LIKELY POPS SEEM
REASONABLE...WITH DAILY SOLID COVERAGE A GOOD BET THROUGH MON. A
GENERAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...STILL EXPECTING THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS VFR LVL CU DEVELOPS. TSTM CHANCES
TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AND HAVE TIMED THE GREATEST THREAT
BTW 23 AND 01Z. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY REFORMS UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A SMALL OVERNIGHT
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
OVERNIGHT PCPN CHANCES. IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY BY MORNING AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS DRIFTING OUR WAY.

ELSEWHERE...TSTM CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FROM MID-AFTERNOON
ONWARD...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHEAST FA...WHERE NUMEROUS TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. VARYING DEGREES OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOWER CLOUDS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER MOUNTAINS AND DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH END OF WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-110300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
341 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT...AIDING
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ003-006>009-012>014-110300-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
341 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 269 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT...AIDING
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

DEO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             3 S MORGANTON           35.70N 81.70W
05/10/2011  E1.25 INCH       BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            SALEM COMMUNITY

&&

RWH