Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST AND SWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
REMAIN UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 2330Z. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL ANTCIPATE STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS EAST OF THE FRONT
THROUGH EVENING...WITH MAINLY A SOLID SHOWER SHIELD OVER THE MTNS
POST FROPA. THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE MAY COME TOGETHER ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER DPVA WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 09Z TO 12Z...DRYING PROFILES WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO DIMINISH
FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL START UP INTO THE WRN
MTNS BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WED. WILL KEEP
ANY ASSOC PTYPE LIQUID...BUT PROFILES WILL COOL TOWARD SNOW
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE UPPER COLD POOL IN THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN CROSS THE NRN TIER WED AFTN. THE ASSOC STEEPER LAPSE
RATES COULD WRING OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED MAXES
OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...CAA/LLVL MIXING CONTINUES THRU WED NITE AND
SOME DEGREE OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AS WELL. LATEST MOS BLEND
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZING THREAT FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SELECT
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW MTNS REMAIN UNDER THE GUN FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...THERE LOOKS TO BE ENUF CVRG OF FREEZING
TEMPS ACRS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH.

A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TO RESULT IN SUNSHINE FOR THURSDAY
AND MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING CLOSER TO CLIMO. MOISTURE LIMITED S/WV IS
SLATED FOR PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH MODEL RESPONSE OF LIGHT QPF WITHIN
WEAK INSTABILITY LIMITED TO NC. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WX WILL FEATURE
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS...DEVELOPING BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM MAX
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS ALL ALONE WITH IT/S DEEPER
CLIPPER TYPE S/W SOLN SUN. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND CMC ARE IN GOOD
SUPPORT OF A LOW MAGNITUDE NRN SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT DPROG/DT IS
MAKING THE CASE FOR MORE OF A DRY SCENARIO SUN...CONTINUING WITH AN
OVERALL STABLE DEEP LAYERED NW FLOW AND MINIMAL AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE.

THE GOING POPS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY LOW FOR SUN...SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHC AND THESE HAVE ONLY BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW PERCENT. STILL
THINK THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR MTN TOP CONVERGENCE AND
ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT GENERAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY NOON SUN. OTHER
THAN THAT...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET. DRY NW FLOW WILL
ENVELOP THE CWFA SAT AND BY LATE SUN A STRONG L/W RIDGE WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TUE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SAT WITH AN INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT TAF ISSUANCE
TIME WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE A VICINITY TS
AND CB CLOUD AT THIS TIME STARTING AT 01Z...AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE LINE FILLS IN. AFTER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
THRU...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. PREFER TO KEEP CEILING VFR AS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NOT HAD A
RESTRICTIVE CEILING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THINK WINDS SHOULD BE NW BY 03Z AND WILL BECOME N AFTER 07Z. LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY SUNRISE LEAVING AN ALTOCU CEILING THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VFR.

ELSEWHERE...KGSP RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL CLUMPS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST TAF SITES WILL
BE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO AS APPROPRIATE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. ONCE THE WIND SHIFT MOVES THROUGH...NOW UNTIL 02Z...
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CEILING WILL STAY
VFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME UPSLOPE
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT UP THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...SO AN MVFR CEILING IS STARTED AT 08Z AND KEPT THROUGH 12Z.
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRES RETURNS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NCZ048-052-053-059-062>065-042030-
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THIS
EVENING...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...GIVING RISE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-042030-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THIS
EVENING...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...GIVING RISE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-042030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THIS
EVENING...AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ051-058-042030-
SWAIN-GRAHAM-
426 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A CHILLY AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...GIVING RISE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW LENOIR            36.01N 81.59W
05/03/2011                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-013-014-040200-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-GASTON-UNION-YORK-
916 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...EASTERN UNION...
SOUTHERN CLEVELAND...WESTERN CHESTER...WESTERN GASTON AND WESTERN
YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 914 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GAFFNEY TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ADAMSBURG TO 3 MILES WEST OF CARLISLE
TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHITMIRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CARLISLE...
  EARL...
  HICKORY GROVE...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  MCCONNELLS...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3450 8160 3454 8159 3480 8165 3518 8171
      3541 8123 3541 8118 3479 8107 3456 8110
      3455 8113 3456 8141 3450 8141 3448 8149
      3444 8154

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
917 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             SCOTTS                  35.84N 81.01W
05/03/2011  E0.25 INCH       IREDELL            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A REPORT OF PEA SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WIND. NO WIND
            DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S CLINTON             34.42N 81.87W
05/03/2011                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS AND JOANNA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORT
            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG OLD MILTON ROAD.

0902 PM     HAIL             JOANNA                  34.42N 81.81W
05/03/2011  E0.75 INCH       LAURENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            JOANNA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED LARGEST HAIL AT THEIR
            STATION WAS DIME SIZED.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             7 ESE TOCCOA            34.54N 83.21W
05/03/2011  E0.50 INCH       STEPHENS           GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MARBLE SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON DAVIS ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1012 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CONOVER            35.72N 81.23W
05/03/2011                   CATAWBA            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A TREE FELL ON A MOBILE HOME ON HIGHLAND AVENUE.

&&

OUTLAW