Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

283 
WWUS52 KGSP 270544
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

NCC089-161-270553-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110427T0630Z/
HENDERSON NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
144 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD MOVED NORTH OF HENDERSON AND WESTERN 
RUTHERFORD COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3570 8195 3552 8214 3553 8217 3551 8223
      3549 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3548 8237
      3546 8237 3548 8244 3578 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 205DEG 19KT 3553 8233

$$

NCC021-111-199-270630-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110427T0630Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-
144 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTH CENTRAL YANCEY AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES...

AT 143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FAIRVIEW...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
SWANNANOA...BLACK MOUNTAIN...MONTREAT...OLD FORT AND MARION.

LAT...LON 3570 8195 3552 8214 3553 8217 3551 8223
      3549 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3548 8237
      3546 8237 3548 8244 3578 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0543Z 205DEG 19KT 3553 8233

$$

HG

965 
WWUS52 KGSP 270555
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

NCC021-111-199-270605-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-110427T0630Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-
155 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTH
CENTRAL YANCEY AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE PREVIOUSLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3570 8195 3552 8214 3553 8217 3551 8223
      3549 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3548 8237
      3546 8237 3548 8244 3578 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 205DEG 19KT 3559 8230

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW NIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM...THE AREA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY FREE OF CONVECTION.
THIS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND
RESPECTABLY UNSTABLE (CONSIDERING THE TIME OF NIGHT). HOWEVER...
THERE JUST ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AVAILABLE. DECENT S/SE
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR 24-36
HOURS NOW AND HAS YET TO PROVE TO BE AN EFFICIENT PROVIDER OF
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SCT/ISLD
CONVECTION...EVEN WITH THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING. PWATS ON THE
00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND 1.2. NOT BAD...BUT ALSO NOT
OUTLANDISHLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH SOME INSTABILITY
LINGERS...IT DECREASES QUITE DRAMATICALLY TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IN OTHER WORDS...IT APPEARS WE/RE GOING TO HAVE TO INCREASE THE
FORCING SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DEVELOP
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THIS MAY ACTUALLY HAPPEN
TOWARD 12Z...AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KT. NEVERTHELESS...
THIS WILL BE TOO LATE TO INSTIGATE FLOODING RAINFALL. THEREFORE...
THE FFA HAS ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BLUE RIDGE. WE WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH (LIKELY) POPS LATE TONIGHT...AND RELATIVELY HEALTHY
QPF (.25-.5 INCH ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT AND SURROUNDING AREAS).

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY FILLING IN OVER THE PIEDMONT...
AND WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE CWFA BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH 5-10 MPH WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS TO YIELD ANOTHER
NIGHT OF VERY MILD MIN TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS
THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING SHRA. MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS WILL
SEE A WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE CASE
RECENTLY...THE STRATUS WILL LIFT AND MIX TO CU BY MID DAY. WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES AND PERIODS OF INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PEAK IN
THE MID 70S WEST TO L80S EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. DEEPENING
MIXING AND GRADIENT SHOULD YIELD GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...CAPES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1000
TO 2000 J/KG. LATE AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD RANGE
FROM LIKELY OVER THE MTNS TO SCT EAST. STRONG LLVL WIND PROFILES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SVR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BEARING DOWN ON THE FCST AREA WED EVE AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES.
CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF WED EVE BUT WITH A 60KT LL SLY
JET AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...STRONG TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH A
SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE
AREA QUICKLY THU WITH MOST PRECIP CLEARING THE E CWA BY EARLY AFTN.
ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE MTNS...BUT WITH DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN FROM THE W AT THE SFC FCST REMAINS DRY. WITH LOWER THKNS VALUES
AND COOLER AIR MOVG IN HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THU-FRI BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON SATURDAY
WITH A STRONG H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND A BROAD UPPER TROF
DIGGING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK ON DAYS 6 AND 7 AS THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHES THE CWFA. THE LATEST GFS REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER LVL PATTERN AND MOVES THE UPPER TROF TO OUR DOORSTEP
ABOUT 12 HRS SOONER THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF. AT THE SFC...A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE AND WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM NEAR CALM ON
SAT TO SOUTHERLY ON SUN AND EARLY MON AND THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NW
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU. AS EXPECTED THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS
FASTER WITH THE FROPA. AFTER THE FROPA...MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SFC
HIGH MOVING IN ON DAY 7. I KEPT POPS BELOW 15% ON SAT INTO EARLY SUN
AND RAMP THEM UP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
AND MORE MOIST. POPS THEN STEADILY INCREASE THRU THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT AND
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE FROPA ON TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS EVENING...SO ANY MENTION OF TS/SH WILL BE REMOVED FROM MOST
TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE AT KAVL...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TS OR TWO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WAS NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS LAST NIGHT (MOSTLY LOW MVFR). HOWEVER...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE JUICIER TONIGHT...SO IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN
THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN S OR SSE AT AROUND 10 KT FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN TO VFR BY WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED ENOUGH
PRIOR TO 00Z TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SH/TS AT THIS EARLY HOUR.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD CIG/VISBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE WED EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES THE REGION. DRYING CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH FAIR WX FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-049-050-053-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-280300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1051 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>058-068>072-082-
SCZ004>014-019-280300-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1051 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE