River Flood Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

533 
WGUS82 KGSP 060411
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1211 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...

  SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER AT LOWELL AFFECTING GASTON COUNTY NC.
  BROAD RIVER AT BOILING SPRINGS AFFECTING CLEVELAND COUNTY NC.

.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...
KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC071-060441-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110908T0000Z/
/LOWN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER AT LOWELL.
* AT 11:15 PM MONDAY EVENING THE RIVER STAGE WAS 1.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT APPROXIMATELY 5.1 FEET 
  TOMORROW MORNING.


$$

NCC045-060441-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110907T1912Z/
/BSPN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BROAD RIVER AT BOILING SPRINGS.
* AT 11:00 PM MONDAY EVENING THE RIVER STAGE WAS 1.8 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT APPROXIMATELY 6.8 FEET LATER TONIGHT.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1041 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS WEEK AS THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SUPPLY
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BROAD LIFT TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIP CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
LIGHT WITH SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE AMOUNTS. HAVE TRENDED THE POP TO
TAKE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SPREAD CATEGORICAL INTO THE ERN
SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND
LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF AMOUNTS THRU
18Z. THIS KNOCKS DOWN OUR STORM TOTAL QPF BY ABOUT 2 INCHES. THIS
TRENDS WELL WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH PUTS THE BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP FROM
THE FOOTHILLS WEST ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ACT ON THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
WATCHES ATTM...BUT EXPECT THE BEST FLOODING POTENTIAL TO BE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS OF ALL 3 STATES. OF COURSE...THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO
THE FOOTHILLS OF ALL 3 STATES. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL HELP
TEMPS TO CLIMB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERY HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE
INSTABILITY. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
HELICITY VALUES AND LOW LCL VALUES...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS FOR THE BIG PICTURE...THE FORECAST IS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT- FORWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. CATEGORICAL POP...OVERCAST SKY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SW
WIND...AND THE COOLEST HIGH TEMP WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MID JULY. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SOME OF THE DETAILS. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF PRE-FRONTAL/WARM ADVECTION/UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SO IT MAY ARRIVE IN WAVES AND FALL INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EFFECT WILL BE TO WET
THE GROUND...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
BEFORE SOME TIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...UNLESS SOME KIND OF
TRAINING OF ECHOES TAKES PLACE. A BIGGER THREAT INITIALLY MIGHT BE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/LOW TOPPED MINI-SUPERCELLS MOVING IN FROM
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS IS THE CASE WITH
MOST TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS...THERE WILL BE AN AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHT ON THE E AND NE PART OF THE
SYSTEM TO FAVOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. IF FOR WHATEVER REASON SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOP INTO NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC...WATCH OUT. THINK THE
SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD AND A MENTION WILL BE MADE IN THE HWO. LATER
THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS WINDING DOWN AFTER
SUNSET...THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT RAMPS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PLAN IS FOR THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE N AND NW
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE MTNS OF NC LATE
TONIGHT. THE TREND OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP THIS ZONE MORE OVER THE
TN VALLEY...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO ACCOUNT FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT FEATURE DEVELOPS LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL...AND THIS MAY KEEP CELLS TRAINING NWD AS IT SLIDES
EAST. THE QPF BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES EASTWARD OVER
THE PIEDMONT. THUS...THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WILL ALSO HAVE A FLOOD
THREAT. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FARTHER INTO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LEE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW...AND THE GFS/ECMWF MID LOW AND SFC FRONT INDICATE
THAT THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NC MTNS AND WEST. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A DRY SLOT
ROTATING OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF CAPES OF GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IT APPEARS THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT AND SWEEP EAST FROM MORNING ON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RIPE
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PW GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND A K-INDEX AROUND
40 AT TIMES. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES LOOKS WELL PLACED.
HODOGRAPHS INDICATES SFC TO 2KM HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2 WITH BULK
SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 M/S...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED EAST OF THE SFC LOW...POSSIBLY
FORMING DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS EAST OF THE MTNS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE STORMS IN THE
HWO. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM U60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO U70S EAST OF THE MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED H5 LOW WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...KEEPING WEAK AND BROAD OMEGA ACROSS
THE CWA. I WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR SHRA. DECREASE IN LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN RAINFALL RATES.
HOWEVER...ONGOING RUNOFF AND SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL JUSTIFIES THE
FFA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW MAY PIVOT
SLIGHTLY EAST...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY. ONGOING WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT CHC POPS...HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM U60S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO U70S EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT THE H5
CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HURRICANE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...BEFORE TAKING A SHARP NE TURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE A PERSISTENT H7 INVERSION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE CIN BELOW THE INVERSION MAY BECOME
DIURNALLY FILLED EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. I WILL
FORECAST CHC TO SCHC POPS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THE SITUATION STILL APPEARS GRIM OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. KCLT IS
TEMPORARILY IN A VFR HOLE THAT SHOULD FILL IN BY 14Z AT THE LATEST.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. ONCE ESTABLISHED...ALL
TAF SITES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEN IFR AND MVFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY...WITH A S TO SE WIND. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
BE MENTIONED AS A CB CLOUD GROUP.  SEE LITTLE HOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY...AND ATTENDANT FLT
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST
FOR MID-WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A REMNANT LOW.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ036-037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-010.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SCZ008-009.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-
501>510-SCZ001>007-010-061500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
1057 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE BORDER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-061500-
IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-
1057 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE BORDER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SCZ011>014-019-061500-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1057 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STALLED COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE BORDER
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN POSSIBLE
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...TORNADOES...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.