Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

956 
WWUS82 KGSP 211555
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1055 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...

.LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON.

SCZ001>014-019-212300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T2300Z/
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
1055 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

* LOCATIONS...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 35 PERCENT.

* FUEL MOISTURE...LOW.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TODAY...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCU HAS SCATTERED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA...BUT SAT PIX
SHOW IT LINGERING OVER THE WRN CWFA. THE PIX ALSO SHOW STRATOCU
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING THIS WAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK THEN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH SKY CONDITIONS SO EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER THE MTNS AS WILL CIRRUS ALL AREAS. SWLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND
ADV FOR NE GA/UPSTATE AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OF NC TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT DEEP MOISTURE AND QG FORCING
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP FCST DRY. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR THE RECORD AT CLT...BUT A LITTLE BELOW AT GSP AND WILL BELOW AT
AVL. HOWEVER...IF A WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AT AVL...THEN HIGHS
MAY SHOOT UP NEAR RECORD LEVEL.

COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT BEST QG FORCING MOVES
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WHERE WEAK UPPER RIDGING SHUNTS THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS WELL WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP MOISTURE INFLOW TO A MINIMUM. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE NC
MTNS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST AND WLY FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPE.
SPREAD SLIGHT CHC POP OVER ALL THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT EVEN
THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
LEVEL. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS ANY COLD AIR
WILL BE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM MON...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
TUE MORNING. WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON-
EXISTENT. AS SUCH...THE SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT RESPOND WITH ANY
QPF EAST OF THE MTNS TUE MORNING...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL THE FRONT TAPS
INTO BETTER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NW FLOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH
FROPA. ONE MORE DAY OF VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE...WITH MUCH
OF THE PIEDMONT WARMING TO NEAR 70 IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW/CLEARING
SKIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THERE WILL BE
QUITE A LARGE LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MARKED BY LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGING/PERSISTENT DRY SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AND DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THERE.
I HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF AND HAVE PRIMARILY USED HPC
GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT THE FORECAST GRIDS.

THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE
MOST PROMINENT ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
SATURDAY MORNING...ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN
FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS NORTH...ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP CROSS THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS AND HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
LIFTS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
DEGREE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA (MAINLY THE WEST)
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY. FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION...I
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THOUGH
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS FAIRLY LOW. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL...HIGHS WILL RUN 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A HIGH BASED STRATOCU CEILING WILL PERSIST
THRU DAYBREAK...BUT COULD REMAIN SCT AT KAVL/KHKY WITH BKN CIRRUS
ABOVE. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS. THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE CURRENT
CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT THEY
REMAIN DRY. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED ANY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING.
THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE LOSS
OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...SO EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS THRU THE
MORNING WITH SOME STRATOCU MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO GUSTY SW WINDS STILL EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING LLWS FOR KCLT AND KAVL THIS MORNING AND KCLT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WAIT FOR COLLABORATION WITH THE CWSU BEFORE
INCLUDING ATTM. EXPECT VFR STRATOCU CIGS TO RETURN THRU THE EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TOWARD MORNING TUESDAY...
WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR WED AND THU IN DRY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY...AND FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. AT
THE REQUEST OF LAND MANAGERS...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING FOR UPSTATE SC. WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENUF
OVER NE GA FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND NO
PRODUCTS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS
ENTERS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH OVER THE UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ068>072-082-507>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-220330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
1027 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-220330-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1027 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SCZ001>014-019-220330-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1027 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-211700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
350 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME AREA. FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
LOW...AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER
YOU CAN BURN TODAY. IF YOU DO BURN...USE EXTREME CAUTION SINCE
FIRES CAN QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-211700-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
350 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 20 PERCENT TO MIDDLE 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME AREA. FUEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW...AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER
YOU CAN BURN TODAY. IF YOU DO BURN...USE EXTREME CAUTION SINCE
FIRES CAN QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.