Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC

120 
WWUS82 KGSP 150203
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-303-501>510-
150315-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110215T0200Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
903 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED ABOVE 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. 

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GENERAL SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SINCE MOST OF THE MAJOR VALLEYS
OF THE NC MTNS ARE SHELTERED FROM THIS FLOW...TEMPS HAVE CRASHED IN
THE DRY/CLEAR AIR. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE LITTLE TENN
VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS WERE ALREADY WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF THEIR
FORECAST MIN. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...LOWS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE
REDUCED BY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...LIGHT MIXING
WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN MOST AREAS. WE HAVE ELECTED TO RAISE MIN
TEMPS IN A FEW AREAS...GENERALLY BRINGING THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.

ON MONDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER WILL MOVE DOWN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. WHILE THE UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR NORTH...
THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB A CATEGORY OR TWO
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DEEPER MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH LOW RH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRES AND UPR
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT AND TUE. THE HIGH QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE EVE...AS A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIPPLES ACRS THE AREA IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. FCST SNDGS SHOW SOME MID
AND UPR LVL MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE S/W TUE-TUE
NGT...PASSING EAST WED. LLVL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL BOTH AFTNS. WHILE DRY AIR AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S MTNS AND
LWR-MID 30S PIEDMONT).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...FLAT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE ERN US AS A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS RIDGED WESTWARD INTO THE
AREA UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN ONE OF THOSE WAVES MOVING TO OUR NORTH DRAGS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA. ANY QG FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO WHAT THE FRONT BRINGS WITH IT.
THE MTNS COULD WRING OUT SOME PRECIP FROM THIS MOISTURE...BUT CHC
WILL BE LOW. THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT WITH DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS
THE WRN SECTION RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST. THE GFS
TAKES THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND KEEPS ANY PRECIP WELL TO OUR
NW. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND HAS SOME
QG FORCING NEAR OUR AREA. IT ALSO PRODUCES PRECIP OVER AT LEAST THE
MTNS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS DRY THRU THE PERIOD...BUT CANNOT IGNORE
THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR
THE NC MTNS FRI NITE AND SAT MORN...DRY ELSEWHERE...THEN SLIGHT CHC
RETURNING TO THE NC MTNS SAT NITE AND SPREADING ACROSS ALL THE CWFA
SUNDAY. TEMPS/THICKNESSES SUGGEST ALL RAIN P-TYPE AT THIS POINT.
LOWS START OUR 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHS AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN RISING AROUND 5 DEGREES ON FRI. LOWS WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR SAT WHILE HIGHS COOL A FEW WITH THE SLOW COOLING
TREND CONTINUING ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...SW SFC WINDS ABT 8 KTS THRU THE MORNING PUSH...ALTHOUGH WSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABT 40 KTS IN THE SVRL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND...LEADING TO A WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL UNTIL GUSTY WSW WINDS
REACH THE SFC AROUND MIDDAY. WSW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS EARLY THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...JUST ABV THE SFC...STOUT WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET THIS MORNING...AND
GUSTY WSW SFC WINDS (WNW AT KAVL) WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGHOUT. THE CURRENT SPS FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF OUR NC COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 6
PM.

ON MONDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STOUTER AS A DRY
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET. SO WITH COORDINATION WITH LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF
NC...AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE UPSTATE. THE LATEST
GFC FUEL MOISTURE MAP SHOWS VALUES ABOVE 8 PERCENT. SO NO FIRE
WEATHER HAZARDS WERE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-082-303-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH/JDL
FIRE WEATHER...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-142015-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
315 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-142015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
315 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SCZ001>014-019-142015-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
315 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.