Alert archive / North Carolina / Frost Advisories in 2011
Frost Advisory 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this frost advisory at Oct 15, 2011, 3:33 AM EDT for 10 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 16, 2011, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 15, 2011, 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 16, 2011, 12:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 16, 2011, 9:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Swain County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 271 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2419 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 70 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 181 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
153 WWUS72 KGSP 150733 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 333 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-151545- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.111016T0400Z-111016T1300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN 333 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$
3 follow-up statements
372 WWUS72 KGSP 151437 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1037 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-152200- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.111016T0400Z-111016T1300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN 1037 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
738 WWUS72 KGSP 151904 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 304 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-161300- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.111016T0400Z-111016T1300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN 304 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
047 WWUS72 KGSP 160755 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 355 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-161300- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-111016T1300Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN 355 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Oct 15, 1:46 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 15, 1:46 AM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 146 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST NEAR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM...AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWD FROM GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLONICALLY CURVED WNWLY FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING THRU THE NEAR TERM...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST WITHIN THIS FLOW. FCST SNDGS AND EVEN MOS INDICATE DEWPTS WILL MIX OUT TO THE LWR-MID 30S WHILE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPR 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SO I EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY BUT LOWER RH THIS AFTN (BELOW 25 PCT FOR A FEW HOURS LIKELY). THESE CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CWFA...WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACRS THE LOW ELEVATIONS AND THE VALLEYS...WHILE WLY FLOW H85 FLOW CONTINUES WITH WARMING TEMPS ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN. BLENDING MOS (INCLUDING COOP MOS) FOR SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS RESULTS IN DECENT CHC OF AREAS OF FROST IN THE MTN VLYS OF WRN NC. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY WITH NEXT UPDATE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 PM EDT FRI...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS TO START THIS PERIOD...SATURDAY EVENING. THE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY. THE CENTER OF THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER OUR REGION TO EAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY. SOME SCATTERED FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MILDER TREND IN ALL THE MODELS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE NAM HAVING A LOOMING TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN AT 00Z MONDAY...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS SCENARIO. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT WEST TO EAST OVER THE VIRGINIAS. THIS WILL TEND TO BRING IN A BIT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY...BUT CERTAINLY NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. THE NAM STILL HAS THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF LATE MONDAY READY TO JOIN THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...ALL OTHER MODELS HAVE NOTHING TO THE KIND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT FRI...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG OVER THE PLAINS MON NIGHT...WITH HEIGHTS THEN FALLING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TUE THROUGH WED. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER TOWARD THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...IMPROVING THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP TO THE W OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUE...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE INTO THE PIEDMONT ALONG WITH A SRLY 850 MB MOISTURE FEED. MODEL SIGNALS REMAIN A BIT MIXED ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TUE AFTN/EVENING...BUT TSTM CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SHOULD THEN SLIP EWD TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...BUT A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE PASSING FRONTAL ZONE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING A BIT LONGER. W TO NW FLOW COOLING AND DRYING IS THEN ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL NW FLOW MOISTURE ALONG WITH CHILLY PROFILES WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING TO PERMIT A BRIEF HIGH ELEVATION MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NC MTNS. THIS WOULD BE VERY LOW END IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S MTNS AND 60S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THU AND FRI AFTN. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS COME UP AFTER SUNRISE WITH HEATING AND MIXING...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THEY DID YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE DIRECTION AT PIEDMONT SITES TO BE WSWLY WITH LEE TROF. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR MASS. OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LTL CHC FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LAST MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...DEO LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...ARK FIRE WEATHER...
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 11:22 PM EDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506- 508-510-SCZ001>014-019-160330- HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD- EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-160330- RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- 1122 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN RABUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
Nearby
Frost Advisories in North Carolina, 2011Every frost advisory in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.